The Super Bowl is finally here—the biggest stage in football and the biggest betting event of the year. Whether you’re backing star players to score touchdowns or looking for hidden value in the prop markets, this is where we make our money.
At ReCover 3 Sports, our picks are backed by our proven 3-step model: data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖. Let’s dive into the best Super Bowl touchdown and prop bets and break down the smartest plays.
Let’s break down the top picks for the Super Bowl using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorite bets), 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
🏈 First Touchdown Pick For Each Side
Jalen Hurts First Touchdown (Eagles) 👍
Hurts has been the Eagles’ go-to red-zone weapon all season, leading the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns. With the “Tush Push” nearly automatic inside the five-yard line, he’s the best bet to strike first for Philly.
Kareem Hunt First Touchdown (Chiefs) 👍
Hunt’s usage near the goal line has been increasing, and with Kansas City’s offense often scripting creative red-zone plays, he’s a great underrated pick to find the end zone early.
🔥 Our 4 Favorite Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown 🔒
This is our favorite play of the Super Bowl. Hurts has rushed for a touchdown in 7 of his last 10 games, and the Chiefs defense ranks bottom-5 against QB runs inside the 10-yard line. The Eagles trust him in big moments—expect Hurts to cash this one.
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown 👍
With the Chiefs utilizing Hunt in short-yardage situations, he’s a great value bet. He saw multiple red-zone carries in both playoff games, and our model suggests he has a strong chance to score in this game.
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown 👍
Barkley is a workhorse, and the Eagles will rely on him heavily in the run game. Kansas City has been vulnerable against power runners, making Barkley a solid pick to find the end zone.
DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown 👍
This is our longshot that we love. The data supports it, but we also have a gut feeling that Hopkins will show up in this game. He remains a red-zone threat, and in a game where everyone expects Kelce and Hurts to dominate, don’t be surprised if Hopkins sneaks in for six.
💧 Bonus Leans We Don’t Hate
Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards 💧
Goedert has been one of Hurts’ most trusted targets, and the Chiefs have struggled against big, physical tight ends. While we lean toward him hitting this number, his production has been up and down, making this a lean, not a lock.
Travis Kelce Under 60.5 Receiving Yards 💧
Everyone talks about how Kelce “always steps up in big games”. I guess they already forgot about the AFC Championship game where he was awful. We believe it’s clear Kelce has lost a step, and we expect an average performance rather than a breakout game.
Eagles +3.5 (Alt Line) 💧
If you can tease this line, do it. We see two possible outcomes: either the Eagles dominate early and pull away, or the Chiefs keep it close and win by a last-second field goal. Either way, a +3.5 cushion is valuable in a Super Bowl matchup like this.
📊 Final Thoughts / Trend Analysis
Jalen Hurts’ anytime touchdown remains our top-rated play, backed by his consistent red-zone dominance and the Eagles’ reliance on the Tush Push. Kareem Hunt also stands out as a valuable touchdown option, with an increased role in short-yardage situations for the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley’s workload makes him a strong candidate to find the end zone, and our research supports DeAndre Hopkins as a high-upside longshot.
On the other side, Dallas Goedert’s receiving prop is tempting but remains a lean, given the volatility of the Eagles’ passing attack. Travis Kelce’s under offers value, especially with Philadelphia’s focus on shutting him down. Lastly, teasing the Eagles to +3.5 could be a sharp play, as we expect either a Philly blowout or a close Chiefs win by a field goal.
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