Welcome to Part 1 of our 4-part ReCover 3 Bracket Breakdown series. We’ve been breaking down bets all season long using the same proven model — and we’re carrying that over to the madness of March. Whether you’re finalizing your bracket or looking to ride with the sharpest trends, we’ve got you covered.
As always, we’re using our proven 3-step model: Data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
We also reviewed and curated insights from some of the top analysts, betting personalities, and bracket experts across the internet — combining them with our own bracket to bring you the most well-rounded predictions possible.
Instead of our daily Props, Locks & Drops format, we’re going round-by-round in each region, picking every game based on matchups, momentum, and sharp trends — all the way through the Final Four.
1st Round
(1) Auburn over (16) Alabama State – Auburn’s size, depth, and athleticism are overwhelming here. Alabama State simply doesn’t have the personnel to hang with a team this physical.
(8) Louisville over (9) Creighton – This was a tough one, but Louisville’s backcourt size and defensive length gave them the slight edge. Creighton is dangerous, but inconsistent outside shooting was a concern.
(5) Michigan over (12) UC San Diego – UCSD was a trendy upset pick, but Michigan’s interior strength and elite coaching from Dusty May helped them survive the chaos. Too much balance for the Tritons to handle.
(4) Illinois over (13) Yale – Illinois has the firepower to avoid an upset here. Terrence Shannon’s shot creation and the Illini’s athleticism proved too much for Yale’s deliberate style.
(6) Dayton over (11) Boise State – Dayton’s efficient offense and experienced core made them one of our favorite mid-seeds. Boise’s shooting concerns caught up with them in this one.
(3) Baylor over (14) Vermont – Vermont had the shooting to make things interesting, but Baylor’s defensive pressure and overall talent won out. Too many weapons for the Catamounts.
(10) Florida State over (7) TCU – This was our upset pick. Florida State’s athleticism, length, and improved play down the stretch gave them the edge. TCU’s guard play wasn’t consistent enough.
(2) Michigan State over (15) Montana – Tom Izzo in March. Michigan State was locked in defensively, and their physicality overwhelmed Montana from the jump.
2nd Round
(1) Auburn over (8) Louisville – Louisville put up a fight, but Auburn’s pace and bench depth wore them down. The Tigers created major mismatches in transition.
(5) Michigan over (4) Illinois – Michigan’s defense was the key here. They forced Illinois into bad shots and used their size to control the boards. Dusty May coached a near-flawless game.
(3) Baylor over (6) Dayton – Dayton kept it close, but Baylor’s guards hit timely shots and created turnovers late. The Bears’ big-game experience mattered.
(2) Michigan State over (10) Florida State – This was a physical battle, but Michigan State’s defensive rotations and halfcourt execution helped them close strong. Izzo’s crew found another gear in crunch time.
Sweet 16
(1) Auburn over (5) Michigan – Michigan’s run ends here. Auburn’s defensive pressure and wing depth prove too much to overcome.
(2) Michigan State over (3) Baylor – MSU controls tempo and owns the glass. Baylor’s perimeter shots don’t fall late.
Elite 8
(2) Michigan State over (1) Auburn – Michigan State imposed their physical style and dictated tempo. Auburn couldn’t get easy buckets, and MSU controlled the boards. Another classic Izzo run to the Final Four.
Final Four Pick: Michigan State
Michigan State advances to the Final Four out of the South Region, riding elite defense, smart guard play, and classic Izzo toughness. But the run ends there — we have Michigan State losing to Florida in the Final Four, with Florida advancing to the National Championship.
💰 Follow @ReCover3Sports for more expert picks, bracket breakdowns, and betting analysis all tournament long!
📍 Missed the other region breakdowns? We got you covered!
➡️ South Region
➡️ West Region
➡️ East Region
➡️ Midwest Region
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