AFC 2025 Win Totals Breakdown: Team-by-Team

With the 2025 NFL season looming, updated win totals are starting to shape how oddsmakers view each AFC team. Several top-tier contenders remain firmly at the top, while others begin a full rebuild under new leadership. Here’s a full breakdown of where every AFC team stands entering the season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (11.5 wins) — One of the AFC’s most consistent powers, Buffalo remains a favorite thanks to elite quarterback play and a deep roster on both sides of the ball.

Miami Dolphins (9.5 wins) — The Dolphins are expected to remain in the thick of the playoff race, with their fast-paced offense and explosive playmakers drawing plenty of preseason optimism.

New York Jets (8.5 wins) — This number reflects cautious hope around a healthier QB room and offseason upgrades, though questions still remain about consistency and late-season performance.

New England Patriots (7.5 wins) — With Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach, the Patriots begin a full retooling phase. While the defense still has foundational pieces, expectations are tempered.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (11.5 wins) — Baltimore continues to be viewed as a legitimate Super Bowl threat, led by a dynamic quarterback and one of the league’s most disciplined defensive units.

Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 wins) — The Bengals remain near the top of the AFC projection board, with a healthy offense and a veteran core looking to rebound from a step back last year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9.5 wins) — Mike Tomlin’s presence and a physical defensive identity keep expectations high, even as the offense looks to take another step forward.

Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins) — A major drop after last season’s playoff appearance. Whether due to regression, roster changes, or uncertainty at quarterback, expectations have sharply declined.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (8.5 wins) — With emerging talent on both sides of the ball, Indy sits firmly in the AFC South mix and could surprise if quarterback play holds steady.

Houston Texans (6.5 wins) — Despite last season’s success, Houston comes in with a surprisingly modest total. Some skepticism remains, though the upside is still clear.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5 wins) — After fading late last season, Jacksonville enters 2025 looking to reclaim its footing, but oddsmakers appear hesitant.

Tennessee Titans (6.5 wins) — Tennessee enters a new era, focused on developing young talent and resetting the franchise under a new coaching staff.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 wins) — As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, the Chiefs will stay among the top of the board. Even with some offensive turnover, expectations haven’t budged.

Los Angeles Chargers (10.5 wins) — With fresh leadership and a roster packed with talent, the Chargers carry one of the most aggressive win totals in the conference.

Denver Broncos (9.5 wins) — The late-season surge in 2024 helped reshape the outlook in Denver. Now it’s about consistency, especially on offense.

Las Vegas Raiders (5.5 wins) — Pete Carroll inherits a Raiders roster in need of long-term work. This total reflects a team entering the first stages of a full rebuild.

The AFC remains a gauntlet. Perennial contenders like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills all carry double-digit expectations again, while teams like the Chargers and Bengals are firmly in the hunt. At the bottom, the Browns and Raiders highlight how quickly fortunes can change in this conference. With coaching turnover, rising young quarterbacks, and several loaded rosters, the AFC playoff race will once again be must-watch from Week 1 on.