The NBA Playoffs continue tonight with key Game 4 matchups, and several star players are in bounce-back or close-out scenarios. We’ve scanned the data and trends to highlight the sharpest plays on the board.
Using our 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 — we’ve locked in the top plays for tonight’s action.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Evan Mobley Under Rebounds + Assists 👍 — Mobley has failed to hit this number in all three playoff games against Miami, posting just 8, 7, and 9 combined. The Heat’s perimeter-heavy offense forces Mobley to defend outside more often, reducing both his rebounding and assist chances. He’s averaging just 15 potential RA per game in this series, far below what’s needed to clear this line.
Stephen Curry Over Assists 👍 — Curry has dished out 9 assists in back-to-back games and is averaging nearly 13 potential assists per game this series. With Houston sending traps and hedges, Curry is being forced into more of a facilitator role. His teammates are converting at a strong clip, and that trend is expected to continue tonight.
Cavaliers vs Heat Over 209.5 Total Points 🔒 — Every game in this series has soared over the posted total, even when both teams shot below their season averages. Miami is in desperation mode to avoid a sweep, while the Cavaliers have scored 120+ in all three games. With both sides pushing pace and using small-ball lineups, multiple sharp sources see this number as still too low.
Ty Jerome Over Points + Assists 🔒 — Jerome has averaged 15.7 points and 4.7 assists during the series and exploded for a 13-point, 11-assist game in Game 3. His role increases significantly when Darius Garland is limited, and he’s been clearing this line consistently over the past 10 games. His control of the second unit and ability to rack up easy dimes make this one of the most trusted combo plays on the board.
Davion Mitchell Over Points + Assists 💧 — Mitchell has been reliable this postseason, clearing his points + assists line in five straight. However, with so many line variations floating (14.5 to 18.5) and Garland possibly playing more minutes, there’s a risk of reduced ball-handling. The matchup still favors Mitchell’s usage, but it’s not as sharp as earlier in the series.
Amen Thompson Over 3.5 Assists 💧 — Amen has cleared this line in 4 of his last 5 games and continues to show strong passing instincts when given 30+ minutes. That said, his role shifts depending on game flow, and other Houston guards sometimes dominate possessions late. Several sources leaned over, but the variance keeps it in lean territory.
📉 Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis
Curry’s assist line and Mobley’s RA under emerged as the most consistent prop trends across platforms, with multiple creators citing matchup-based reasoning. Ty Jerome continues to deliver in combo props as Garland’s status fluctuates, and the Cavs vs Heat over was widely seen as mispriced after three straight overs. Mitchell and Amen still carry upside but enter tonight as more fragile plays based on usage volatility.
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