It’s a packed Wednesday slate in the majors, with value spread across nearly every game — from classic pitcher’s duels to slugfests in hitter-friendly parks. Whether you’re chasing plus-money home runs or targeting sharp team edges, we’ve built a curated card designed to hit all angles.
For today’s May 21 slate, we’re rolling with a clean 9-play card: 3 Home Run Bets 💣, 3 Team/Game Picks 🧢, and 3 Player Props 📊 all selected by our next-level ReCover 3 curation.
Every pick is powered by our proven 3-step model that’s built to win:
- 📊 Data-driven research – We break down matchup stats, pitcher splits, park factors, and recent trends.
- 📈 Trends analysis – We monitor betting market movement, public vs. sharp splits, and game flow indicators.
- 🤖 AI insights – We curate top plays from across the industry to lock in only the strongest consensus bets.
Let’s get into the card!
3 Home Run Bets 💣:
Shohei Ohtani to Homer vs. Diamondbacks – Ohtani enters the day with 17 homers and faces a starter he’s crushed in limited at-bats. Arizona’s right-hander struggles with hard contact to lefties, and Ohtani’s barrel rate has spiked this month. He’s the most backed HR prop across multiple platforms.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to Homer vs. Blue Jays – Tatis has launched 4 HRs in his last 9 games and owns a strong track record vs Kevin Gausman, going 8-for-17 with 2 HRs. Toronto’s ballpark plays neutral, but Tatis’s pull-side power makes this a strong plus-money swing.
Cal Raleigh to Homer vs. White Sox – Raleigh gets a power-friendly matchup against a struggling righty staff. The switch-hitting slugger has multiple 400+ foot homers this month, and Chicago’s bullpen has allowed the most HRs in the AL this season.
3 Team/Game Picks 🧢:
Phillies -1.5 Run Line vs. Rockies – Philly’s offense is surging and heads into Coors Field with a major edge. The Rockies’ pitching staff ranks bottom-3 in xERA and bullpen WHIP, and the Phillies’ top half of the lineup has been mashing. This is a smash spot.
Cubs Moneyline vs. Marlins – Chicago has the pitching advantage and gets a favorable park shift at Wrigley. Several sharps are aligned on this side, citing the Cubs’ recent success at home and Miami’s offensive inconsistency.
Phillies vs. Rockies Over 11.5 Total Runs – This is a classic Coors Field play. The over has hit in 7 of the last 10 Phillies road games, and both teams have shown signs of early-game scoring. Wind conditions and umpire data also favor the over here.
3 Player Props 📊:
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits vs. Rockies – Harper loves hitting in Colorado and has mashed against tonight’s probable starter. His contact metrics are elite, and Coors Field inflates both line-drive rate and slugging. This is a strong 2-hit setup.
Taj Bradley Under 17.5 Outs Recorded vs. Astros – Bradley has struggled to go deep into games, and Houston’s plate discipline should drive up pitch count. He’s failed to clear this number in 3 of his last 4 starts, and matchup models project an early exit again.
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI vs. Mets – Bregman’s splits vs right-handed pitching are strong, and he’s batting cleanup against a shaky back-end arm. If the Astros offense shows up early, Bregman should fill the stat sheet across multiple categories.
We’ve structured today’s card to hit from all angles — high-upside home runs, sharp sides and totals, and value props with model support. All 9 plays are curated based on a mix of data, expert consensus, and game flow confidence.
💰 Follow @ReCover3Sports for more expert picks, curated slates, and betting breakdowns daily.
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