NBA Finals Game 3 Bets: Props, Locks & Drops for Wednesday, June 11

The NBA Finals shift to Indianapolis tonight for Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. The series is tied 1-1, and the atmosphere in Indiana is expected to be electric, marking the first home NBA Finals game for the Pacers in about 25 years. This pivotal Game 3 will set the tone as both teams vie for control of the series.

Using our proven 3-step model — data-driven research , trends analysis , and AI insights  — we’ve analyzed tonight’s matchup to bring you our top picks.

Let’s break them down using our exclusive system: Props (bets we like), Locks (our favorites), and Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).

 Pacers +5.5 Spread — The Thunder are 0-7 against the spread on the road in the playoffs. Teams coming off a straight-up playoff loss are 66% against the spread in the next game, a trend favoring the Pacers. Home court advantage and the tendency for role players to shoot better at home are also key factors. The spread dropping to 5 points suggests oddsmakers expect a competitive game, and Indiana has a strong home record. The atmosphere in Indiana is expected to be electric, leading to a close game.

Alex Caruso Over 9.5 Points — He has played consistent minutes (27-28) and scored 11 and 20 points in the first two games. The Pacers’ defensive focus on other players has allowed Caruso to get good looks. He has gone over this line in all seven games this season when playing 25-30 minutes, and averages 13.57 points per game in his last seven matchups against the Pacers. We’d consider an alt line of 8+ points here just to be safe, though.

 Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points — This is presented as a top player prop pick. Despite a poor 3 for 11 shooting performance in Game 2, he still managed to score 15 points by getting to the free-throw line (8 for 9). He has maintained high volume and consistently gets to the free-throw line, attempting 6 in Game 1 and 9 in Game 2. Playing at home suggests a potential for positive shooting regression, and the Thunder’s defense allows points via methods that align with Siakam’s strengths. A much better performance is expected, especially since his minutes were limited due to the Game 2 blowout. He is expected to be a more aggressive scoring option with better home court support.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points — The host expects a good scoring game after Haliburton found some momentum late in Game 2’s fourth quarter. He scored 17 points in Game 2 despite taking zero free throw attempts in the series , and coaching adjustments are expected to encourage him to be more aggressive. Haliburton averages nearly 20 points per game at home , and he has a history of performing well after less impactful games. If you are worried about the points, look at Haliburton’s points + rebounds instead.

 Game Total Over 226.5 — While general Game 3 trends in the Finals favor the under by over 60% , these are two of the three fastest-paced teams in the NBA postseason. Some sharp money has also pushed the line up from 228 to 228.5. The pace picked up significantly in the second half of the first two games and is expected to continue. The energy in Indiana for their first home Finals game in 25 years is expected to be very high, leading to more scoring. Historically, all but one head-to-head game between these teams have gone over this total, and a fast-paced game is expected.

Myles Turner Over 13.5 Points — Turner has been consistent, scoring 15 and 16 points in the first two games. He averages more points at home (16.3) than on the road (14.8) and has scored at least 15 points in six of eight home playoff games. He boasts a 79% hit rate at home in Indiana this season. OKC’s return to a double-big lineup in Game 2 means Turner is essential , and he’s getting wide-open jump shots because the Thunder defense is focused on stopping Haliburton in the pick-and-roll, making Turner a beneficiary.

Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis

Across the betting sources we tracked for tonight, the strongest individual player prop trend was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over Points, endorsed by many unique sources who believe he is a superstar, expected to have heavy volume and efficiency, and has scored 33+ points in every game against the Pacers this season. The Thunder – Spread and Pacers + Spread were the most frequently discussed team bets, reflecting divided opinions on the game’s outcome but a shared expectation of a competitive matchup on Indiana’s home court, where the Thunder have a notable ATS struggle.

However, some of our picks go against certain general trends mentioned in the notes. For instance, our selection for the Game Total Over goes against the general Game 3 Finals trend that historically favors the under by over 60%. Despite this, our pick leans on the high pace of both teams and the expected electric home crowd energy in Indiana.

Let’s stay hot as we move toward the Finals! Follow @ReCover3Sports for more expert picks and daily betting breakdowns!