It’s a crucial playoff slate with elimination games and bounce-back spots all over the board. We’ve locked in the sharpest angles from our trusted data and content network.
Using our 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 — we’ve locked in the top plays for tonight’s action.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Kawhi Leonard Over 24.5 Points 👍 — Kawhi is seeing high shot volume again, putting up 22 attempts in Game 4 and hitting 60% or better in both of his games in Denver this season. His minutes and usage remain elite in this series, and he’s been the one constant for the Clippers’ offense. Multiple sources see this as a great spot to back his scoring once more.
Celtics-11.5 or Moneyline 👍 — The Celtics have scored 102.5+ points in all three wins this series and return home in a closeout spot. Several sources loved the full-game spread (-11.5), while others specifically highlighted Boston’s team total being too low based on their postseason pace and shot quality. We think at the very least they get the job done and close the series.
Jamal Murray Over 22.5 Points 🔒 — Murray had a rough shooting night in Game 4, going just 5-for-17, but remains the second-highest usage player on the floor behind Jokic. In Denver, Murray has historically responded well to poor shooting games, and he’s expected to be far more efficient tonight. Nearly every sharp source expects him to return to form.
Franz Wagner Over 17.5 Points 🔒 — Franz has averaged 26 points per game in this series and continues to benefit from Boston’s focus on slowing down Paolo Banchero. He’s taken 23 or more shots in multiple games and is converting at a high rate. With Orlando desperate to force a Game 6, Franz’s offensive role stays heavy.
Clippers Moneyline 💧 — Some sharp bettors were on the Clippers in this spot, especially with Kawhi trending up and L.A. having split the series 2–2. But others noted Denver’s home-court edge and bounce-back history after losses. The split opinion keeps this one out of lock territory.
Aaron Gordon Under 1.5 Threes Made 💧 — Gordon’s volume from deep is inconsistent, and he’s not a focal point in Denver’s offense from behind the arc. That said, he’s playing big minutes and could get a couple of open looks if the Clippers over-help on Jokic. While the under has value, it’s not a high-confidence play.
📉 Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis
The strongest trends came from trust in Denver’s bounce-back players like Jamal Murray and in Orlando’s volume scoring threats like Franz Wagner. Celtics bets were also consensus picks across the board, whether on the spread, team total, or both. Kawhi props remain playable, but Clippers sides and Gordon unders came with more disagreement.
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