The Eastern Conference Semifinals are heating up as the Pacers look to protect home court and take a commanding 3-1 lead over the Knicks. With Tyrese Haliburton surging, Jalen Brunson logging historic minutes, and Pascal Siakam facing defensive mismatches, tonight’s Game 4 offers another slate of elite betting angles. We’ve scoured the sharpest sources and used our proven system to lock in the best plays from all sides of the market.
Using our proven 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 — we’ve locked in the top last-minute plays for tonight’s action.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists 👍 — Haliburton has cleared this line in four of the last five playoff games, including 10 assists in Game 4. The Knicks continue to collapse the paint, and Haliburton’s court vision has been carving them up. We like this bet — but the 8+ assists alt line provides even safer value in parlays.
Pacers Moneyline 👍 — Indiana has bounced back strong in most playoff losses and dominated large stretches of Game 3 before collapsing late. At home, they’re 5–1 this postseason and shot nearly 60% from the field in the first half last game. With role players likely more consistent at home, we’re backing Indiana to even the series.
Jalen Brunson Over 29.5 Points 🔒 — Brunson has gone over this number in eight of his last nine playoff games and dropped 44 on Indiana in Game 1. He leads the postseason in usage rate and field goal attempts. While we like the full over, 25+ alt points feels like the perfect floor for most parlays.
Pascal Siakam Under 6.5 Rebounds 🔒 — Siakam has stayed under this number in all four games this series, posting just 5, 5, 4, and 6 rebounds. Myles Turner and the Pacers guards are dominating rebounding chances, and Siakam continues to spend more time on the perimeter.
Over 217.5 Total Points 💧 — Each of the last three games in this series has gone over the total, and the pace has quietly ramped up. Still, with two of the top isolation scorers in Brunson and Haliburton, this could slow down late in a tight contest. Sharps are torn, so we lean over — but don’t love it.
T.J. McConnell Over 13.5 PRA 💧 — McConnell posted 21 PRA in just 23 minutes last game and has been a sparkplug off the bench. That said, his minutes are always at risk if the game stays tight or if Haliburton plays extended shifts. We lean over but can’t fully trust the role.
📉 Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis
Across all 40+ sources, the strongest trend was Jalen Brunson’s points prop, which received the highest number of repeat mentions — especially the 25+ and 30+ alt lines. Analysts remain bullish on his offensive volume and playoff scoring consistency. Haliburton’s assist line came up repeatedly as a parlay piece or standalone bet, particularly in Game 1/2-type game scripts. Siakam’s under on rebounds was another repeated sharp-side trend, with multiple data models noting his limited rebound share in this series.
The Pacers ML and spread saw wide support, especially among model-based bettors who noted Indiana’s +27.8 net rating at home in the playoffs. McConnell’s prop hit came up in multiple spots as a sleeper play, though with volatility flags due to Rick Carlisle’s unpredictable rotations.
There was no strong consensus on the full game total — while many noted the last three games going over, several cautioned that if the Knicks’ offense stalls again, it could land under. The slight majority leaned over but not with high confidence.
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