The diamond is buzzing with a full slate of MLB action to kick off the week, and we’re dialed in on the mound and at the plate. While a full 15-game schedule can be overwhelming, digging into the data reveals key matchups where starters have a distinct advantage and where hitters are primed for a big night.
For our Monday bets, we’re focusing on a mix of bets and alternate lines to give us a bit more cushion and find the best value on the board using our proven 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Chase Burns 6+ Strikeouts (+115) — This was a popular pick in our research. Burns showcased his “nasty stuff” in his MLB debut, racking up 8 strikeouts. He now gets a fantastic matchup against the Boston Red Sox, a team with one of the highest strikeout rates in the entire league. We’re taking the plus-money value on him to hit at least six Ks.
👍 New York Yankees Moneyline (-145) — This was a strong consensus pick across numerous sources. The reasoning is a direct fade of Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer. At 40 years old and coming off the IL, his velocity was down and his command wasn’t sharp in his first start back. Facing a potent Yankees lineup that has consistently scored well on the road is a tough spot for a struggling veteran.
🔒 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-115) — This was highlighted as the “favorite pick of the day” by one source. The reasoning is ironclad: he has been on a tear, going over this line in 13 of his last 20 games. Most importantly, his BvP (Batter vs. Pitcher) history against Carlos Rodón is exceptional: 8-for-12 with a .667 average and a home run.
🔒 Garrett Crochet 7+ Strikeouts — This was another pick with overwhelming consensus. Crochet has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and today he faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup that is described as “miserable” against left-handed pitching. Crochet is averaging 9.2 strikeouts over his last five games, and we’re confident he can get to at least seven tonight in a premium matchup.
💧 Zack Wheeler 7+ Strikeouts — While Wheeler is an elite strikeout pitcher who has gone over this line in 9 of his last 10 starts, we’re placing this in the drop category because of the difficult matchup. He faces the San Diego Padres, who are one of the most disciplined, lowest-strikeout teams in the league. This is a classic “great pitcher vs. great lineup” spot, making it a lean for us.
💧 Boston Red Sox Moneyline — This was a popular pick in our research, but we’re treating it as a drop due to the heavy price. Garrett Crochet is dominant, but the Reds’ starter, Chase Burns, looked electric in his debut. Laying heavy juice on a moneyline is always a risky proposition, so while we lean toward the Red Sox, we don’t love the value.
🔍 Final Thoughts & Trend Analysis
The clearest trends from our research were fading aging or struggling pitchers and backing elite arms in favorable matchups. The consensus on the Yankees Moneyline was almost entirely built on Max Scherzer’s diminished stuff and blister issue. Similarly, Garrett Crochet’s props were heavily favored due to his own dominance and the Reds’ significant struggles against left-handed pitching. The research also heavily valued strong BvP data, making the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop a standout play.
Our picks directly reflect these trends. The Yankees prop and Crochet lock are pure consensus plays. The Guerrero Jr. lock is backed by undeniable historical data. Our Drops represent strategic pivots where the matchup isn’t as clear-cut as the pitcher’s talent suggests. We’re cautious on an elite arm in Zack Wheeler due to a disciplined opponent, and we’re wary of the heavy price on a Red Sox team that, while favored, faces a rookie pitcher who showed immense promise.
For more daily picks, breakdowns, and all your betting help, make sure to visit ReCover3Sports.com and our Linktree! Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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