A loaded National League roster finally has pundits questioning the American League’s 10-1 run since 2013. Raw talent tilts to the NL, the game sits in a National League park, and both dugouts bring overpowering arms in reserve. Add the midsummer showcase’s usual run-suppression and we’ve got a handful of edges worth backing before the first pitch.
Our model has been dialed in all season long, and to find today’s best value, we’re using our proven 3-step model – data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 National League Moneyline – The NL boasts a deeper bench and stronger late-inning relief corps, plus several hitters who know this park inside out. With home-field familiarity and lineup balance outweighing the AL’s historical edge, this projects as the year the trend flips.
👍 No Run First Inning (NRFI) – Six of the last seven All-Star Games opened scoreless, and the Skenes–Skubal matchup is perfect for another. Skenes is a pristine 20-0 to the NRFI in 2025; Skubal sits at 16-3, setting up the night’s highest-probability outcome.
🔒 Shohei Ohtani to Record 1+ Hits – Leading off for the NL as DH guarantees at least one first-inning plate appearance and likely a second. He’s 2-for-6 with a homer in prior All-Star action and owns a .320 average versus lefties, making a single knock a favorable even-money play.
💧 Game Total Under 7.5 Runs – The Under has cashed in 13 of the last 17 midsummer classics, and tonight’s lineup of high-velo starters backed by specialist relievers makes stringing hits together tough. Unless one inning snowballs, history and pitching depth point to another low-scoring showcase.
💧 Paul Skenes Over 1.5 Strikeouts – Skenes owns a 32.7 % strikeout rate and has notched two punch-outs in the first inning in 14 of his last 16 starts. He opens against Riley Greene (35 % K-rate vs RHP) and Aaron Judge (30 %), two prime swing-and-miss bats. Needing only two strikeouts in his guaranteed frame makes this a value-heavy play despite the plus-money tag.
🔍 Final Thoughts & Trend Analysis
Trends lean hard toward run prevention in All-Star play—unders and NRFIs keep cashing because elite pitchers dictate pace. This year’s NL squad also breaks the recent talent stalemate, with depth that should matter once reserves enter.
Our card mirrors those signals: we ride the NRFI and Under as trend staples, lean on the NL’s lineup edge, and lock in Ohtani’s likelihood of finding at least one hit from the leadoff spot.
For more daily picks, breakdowns, and all your betting help, make sure to visit ReCover3Sports.com and our ReCover 3 Linktree! Good luck tonight, and let’s keep cashing!
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