Football is back. Sunday, August 17 gave us two preseason showcases with real betting value: Bills at Bears and Jaguars at Saints. Preseason can be messy, but you can still find edges when you focus on quarterback usage, scripted series, and which units see the field together. Today we’re riding two QB yardage spots with clear paths to volume, and we’re tempering excitement on a spread that can swing late once the depth guys take over.
Our proven model is ready for season 2 in the NFL, and to find today’s best value, we’re using data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props, 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Spencer Rattler Over 95.5 Passing Yards – New Orleans plans give Rattler meaningful second-half work while he competes for role and reps. Your notes also point to Jacksonville’s defensive depth being thinned, which puts him against more second and third-unit defenders as the game turns. That combination with extended snaps, simplified reads, and softer coverage late supports yardage accumulation without needing explosive plays.
🔒 Caleb Williams Over 75.5 Passing Yards – Chicago’s objective at home is clear: get the first-team offense into rhythm early. Your notes expect a solid first-quarter window for Williams with quick game and play-action concepts that generate easy completions and yards after catch. With young receivers integrated and a scripted opening stretch, 80-plus is reachable through a mix of designed first-read throws and one intermediate shot.
💧 Bears -2.5 – The handicap favors Chicago when starters are on the field, but preseason spreads are fragile. Rotations, drive caps, and any unexpected run for Buffalo’s depth can swing this late. If you want Bears exposure, pair it with a first-half angle or stick to Chicago offensive props tied to that scripted opening instead of relying on the full-game number.
🔍 Final Thoughts & Trend Analysis
Quarterback evaluation drives preseason usage. That’s why we’re backing two QB yardage overs tied to clear playing-time plans and favorable defensive matchups. The spread lands as a Drop because late-game rotations can erase early edges.
We’ll keep prioritizing roles, snaps, and intent over guesses. In August, quarterbacks with defined windows and clean concepts are usually the sharpest way to bet.
For more daily picks, breakdowns, and all your betting help, make sure to visit ReCover3Sports.com and our ReCover 3 Linktree! Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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