The first Sunday Night Football of the season is finally here, and it’s a heavyweight AFC clash between the Buffalo Billsand the Baltimore Ravens. This matchup is a highly anticipated playoff rematch, featuring two of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks and rosters loaded with talent. Expect a back-and-forth, exciting game as both teams look to start their season with a statement win under the primetime lights.
We put in the hours of research so you don’t have to. To find today’s best value, we’re using our proven 3-step model: data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
The Ravens enter this matchup as the more complete and well-rounded team. A strong revenge narrative from last season’s playoff loss adds motivation, and they are well-positioned to exploit a Billssecondary dealing with significant injuries. Baltimore holds clear advantages on both sides of the ball and is set up for a statement win.
👍 Josh Allen (BUF) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Josh Allen scored the most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback last season and is a constant threat with his legs near the goal line. The Bills frequently lean on his rushing ability in primetime situations and in short-yardage spots, and he has a history of finding the end zone against the Ravens. Baltimore’s aggressive defense could create scrambling lanes for him to exploit.
🔒 Derrick Henry (BAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Derrick Henry is one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in the league, having led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2024. He has a history of scoring in nearly every game he has played against the Bills and is expected to receive heavy usage inside the 10-yard line. This is a prime matchup against a Bills defense that struggled to prevent scores in the red zone last season.
🔒 Game Total Over 50.5 Points
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams feature MVP-caliber quarterbacks and high-powered offenses that both averaged over 30 points per game last year. Their playoff matchup last season saw a combined 52 points, and with elite playmakers on both sidelines, this game is widely expected to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
💧 Lamar Jackson (BAL) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Lamar Jackson is coming off an incredible 41-touchdown passing season and has historically performed well against Buffalo. He faces a Bills secondary that is considered a major liability and is dealing with injuries to key players. With his top targets healthy, Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone through the air.
💧 Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
As the Ravens’ definitive WR1, Zay Flowers led the team with over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie and is poised for a heavy target share. He is a big-play threat who should be able to take advantage of an exploitable Bills secondary that has issues with pass defense.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
The notes for tonight’s game pointed to a clear theme: a high-scoring affair driven by elite quarterback play and a strong revenge angle for Baltimore. The consensus is that the Ravens are the more complete team, and their advantages on both lines should control the game’s tempo. We prioritized bets that reflect this, including the Ravens Moneyline and Derrick Henry’s touchdown prop, which is supported by his dominant red-zone usage and Buffalo’s defensive struggles in that area.
On the other side, Allen’s unique ability to make plays with his legs makes his touchdown prop a strong angle regardless of the game script. Ultimately, this card is built on the expectation that both offenses will succeed, leading to a point total that surpasses the 50.5 line, while trusting the more well-rounded Ravens team to come out on top.
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