The first full Sunday of the NFL season is here, and the excitement is palpable. With it being Week 1, we are rolling out a slightly smaller card of player props than usual, as we prefer to gather a little more data before going all-in. That hasn’t stopped our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 from uncovering some juicy angles on the slate.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate). On top of that, we’re featuring our three favorite Anytime Touchdown bets in a separate section below.
👍 New York Giants +6.5 (Spread) This is a classic case of a divisional underdog getting too many points. The Commanders have only covered this spread once in their last 13 games against the Giants, a staggering trend that’s hard to ignore. New York’s defensive front is a legitimate threat and should be able to exploit a questionable Washington offensive line, especially with key players missing. With Russell Wilson’s excellent track record of covering as an underdog, the Giants are in a prime position to keep this game well within a touchdown.
🔒 Denver Broncos -8.5 (Spread) This matchup presents a nightmare scenario for the Tennessee Titans: a rookie quarterback making his debut on the road, at altitude, against a formidable defense. The Broncos were the NFL’s best team by average margin of victory last season, routinely dominating lesser opponents at home. Expect head coach Sean Payton to be aggressive and aim to “send a message” in the opener, making this a prime spot for a comfortable, double-digit victory.
💧 Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (Spread) While this is just a lean, the historical trends strongly favor Jacksonville. The Carolina Panthers have been notoriously slow starters, winning only two of their last 17 road games and posting a dismal 1-5 record against the spread in their last six Week 1 contests. They now face a healthier Trevor Lawrence who has an upgraded receiving corps to work with. We’re banking on the Jaguars’ talent to overcome any early-season jitters and secure a win by more than a field goal.
🏈 Our 3 Favorite Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Anytime Touchdown Scorer Now the cemented number one running back for the Lions, Gibbs is poised for a massive season. He was an absolute force to end last year, scoring an incredible 11 touchdowns in his final six games. He has also dominated this specific matchup, finding the end zone in both of his games against the Green Bay Packers last season.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) Anytime Touchdown Scorer With a healthy Joe Burrow back under center, Ja’Marr Chase has massive upside every single week. He proved to be the league’s most dangerous red-zone threat last year, leading all players with 39 targets inside the 20-yard line. He also has a history of success against the Browns, scoring two touchdowns in their last meeting.
James Conner (ARI) Anytime Touchdown Scorer This bet is all about volume and a favorable matchup. Conner is the “alpha and omega” of the Arizona running game, handling the vast majority of the carries and all of the goal-line work. He now faces a New Orleans Saints defense that is widely projected to have one of the most “atrocious” run defenses in the entire league this season.
Bonus Pick: Keep an eye on our Sunday Night Football blog later for our thoughts on Derrick Henry’s touchdown chances.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Our Week 1 card is built on clear and powerful angles. We are confidently fading rookie quarterbacks in hostile road environments, as reflected in our Broncos lock. We’re also leaning on strong historical trends in divisional matchups, which is the foundation of our Giants prop. For our touchdown picks, the strategy was simple: target high-volume, goal-line running backs who are central to their offenses and are facing questionable defenses. As the season progresses, we’ll have more data to work with, but for Week 1, sticking to these foundational principles provides a strong path to profit.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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