Week 3 kicks off with a massive AFC East rivalry as the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. Divisional games on a short week are always a battle, and this one is loaded with storylines as both teams look to assert their dominance in the division. Tonight’s card is particularly running back heavy, as we’ve identified some huge matchup advantages for the star playmakers in each backfield. That hasn’t stopped our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 from uncovering some juicy angles on the slate.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 De’Von Achane (MIA) Anytime Touchdown Scorer This prop is built on an incredible track record of consistency and success in this specific matchup. Achane has scored a touchdown in both games this season and in eight of his last ten games overall. More importantly, he has been a thorn in the Bills’ side throughout his career, finding the end zone six times in just four games against them. As the clear leader in the backfield with a high target share, he is the Dolphins’ most reliable scoring threat.
👍 James Cook (BUF) Over 84.5 Rush + Rec Yards This is a bet on a high-volume player in what might be his best matchup of the season. James Cook has been the engine of the Bills offense, racking up 237 scrimmage yards through the first two weeks. He now faces a Dolphins defense that is in complete disarray, having allowed an average of 174 total yards per game to opposing running backs this season. In a game where the Bills are expected to be playing with a lead, Cook should see plenty of volume to cruise past this number.
🔒 Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 29.5 Receiving Yards This lock is built on a consistent history of success in this matchup and a perfect schematic advantage. Dalton Kincaid has cleared this receiving line in both games this season and in all four career games against the Dolphins, averaging 44 receiving yards per game against them. The Dolphins’ defense struggles mightily to defend the middle of the field and has been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing big games to the position in the first two weeks. Miami also blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league, and Kincaid is Josh Allen’s primary target against the blitz.
🔒 James Cook (BUF) Anytime Touchdown Scorer We are locking in one of the most consistent scorers in the league. Cook has been a touchdown machine, finding the end zone in eight of his last nine games, including three scores already this season. He is the Bills’ primary weapon in the red zone, and in a game where Buffalo’s team total is projected to be over 30 points, their lead back is a fantastic bet to get in for a score.
💧 Buffalo Bills Spread (-12) & Team Total Over (30.5) – Bonus Pick Our first drop is a bonus two-for-one, as both angles point to the same outcome: a dominant performance by the Bills. Josh Allen has an incredible 12-2 career record against the Dolphins, and Buffalo’s offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging 35.5 points per game. They face a Miami defense that is statistically one of the worst in the league, allowing a league-high 9.7 yards per pass attempt. We expect the Bills to roll, so whether you lay the big number or just bet on their offense to eclipse its high team total, both are strong leans.
💧 De’Von Achane (MIA) Over 40.5 Receiving Yards This is a pure matchup and game-script lean. Achane has a proven history of success as a receiver against this specific team, averaging 63.5 receiving yards in his two games against them last year. The Bills’ defensive scheme is notoriously vulnerable to pass-catching running backs, having allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position so far this season. As 12.5-point underdogs, the Dolphins will likely be throwing often, which only increases his chances of seeing heavy target volume.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s AFC East showdown presents a clear mismatch on paper, and our card reflects that. The core of our strategy is to back the Bills’ high-powered offense against a Dolphins defense that has been one of the league’s worst through two weeks. This is why we are confident in the props for Cook and Kincaid, who have elite matchups. The running backs on both sides, Cook and Achane, are also central to our card, as both have a history of success in this rivalry and are being deployed in creative ways by their offenses. While a divisional game on a short week can always be unpredictable, we are trusting the Bills’ home-field advantage and offensive firepower to carry the day.
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