No football, no problem. We love the board today for a massive Friday slate of MLB action, which is led by some dominant strikeout pitchers in fantastic matchups. We’re coming off a 4/7 night on our picks for Bills vs. Dolphins, and while that’s a decent result, a night like that is rare for a system that has been hitting at an even higher rate.
That’s because our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Garrett Crochet (BOS) Over 8.5 Strikeouts
We are backing an ace in dominant form. Crochet had nine strikeouts in his last start against this same Tampa Bay Rays lineup. Data-driven models project him to finish right around nine strikeouts again tonight, giving this prop a significant statistical edge. He gets this great matchup against a Rays team that is prone to striking out, making this a prime spot for him to rack up the Ks.
👍 Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline
This is a straightforward bet on the better team in a great spot. The Brewers have the “by far and away better offense” and a significant pitching advantage against a St. Louis Cardinals team that has been struggling mightily at the plate. The Brewers have also hit well against the Cardinals’ starter, Sonny Gray, this season, scoring nine runs against him in two previous outings.
🔒 Trevor Rogers (BAL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts
This is a lock based on a dominant trend and an elite matchup. Rogers has been a strikeout machine, clearing this line in seven of his last eight starts while posting a high 13.5% swinging-strike rate. He now gets to face a New York Yankees lineup at home, and the Yankees have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching over the last three weeks.
🔒 Joe Adell (LAA) Over 1.5 Total Bases
This is a perfect storm for a massive offensive night. Adell is a premier power hitter playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, Coors Field. He faces pitcher Bradley Bllock, who is described as “absolutely terrible” with a 9.00 ERA and has an expected ISO that is highly favorable for a power hitter like Adell.
💧 Boston Red Sox Moneyline
This lean is on a motivated team with its ace on the mound in what is essentially a must-win game. The Red Sox are in desperation mode for a wild card spot and have dominated the season series against the Rays with an 8-2 record. They have their best pitcher, Crochet, on the mound, who is 16-5 on the season and threw a complete-game shutout against this same Rays team in his last start.
💧 Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts
We are leaning on the Astros’ ace to deliver in a crucial, playoff-atmosphere game. Brown has had an unbelievable year, posting an impressive 10.2 K/9 rate while limiting home runs. In a must-win game at home, expect him to bring his best stuff and rack up the strikeouts against a division rival.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s card is all about attacking clear matchup advantages, particularly on the pitcher’s mound. Our strikeout props for Rogers and Crochet are backed by strong recent trends and face lineups that are highly susceptible to whiffs. On the hitting side, our lock for Adell is a prime example of a “perfect storm” bet, where a power hitter, a weak pitcher, and a hitter-friendly park all align. As the MLB playoff race heats up, we’re focusing on motivated teams with their aces on the mound, like the Red Sox and Brewers, who have clear paths to victory in must-win situations.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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