It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, and we have a fantastic slate of games with major playoff implications already on the line. The matchups are getting tougher and the lines are getting sharper, but there are still some great betting opportunities on the board. For this week’s card, we are featuring our standard best bets and then adding our favorite anytime touchdown props.
That’s because our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Brock Bowers (LV) Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
This is a prime buy-low spot on an elite talent. After a couple of quiet weeks while battling an injury, Bowers is reportedly healthier and the Raiders coaches have made it clear they need to get him more involved. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed the most receptions and sixth-most yards to tight ends this season. Expect a squeaky wheel game where he is force-fed targets.
👍 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (Spread)
We’re taking the points with the healthier and more desperate team. The 49ers are completely decimated by injuries, with quarterback Brock Purdy, tight end George Kittle, and defensive end Nick Bosa all either out or questionable. The Jaguars have a significant advantage with their pass rush against a banged-up offensive line and have enough offensive firepower with Trevor Lawrence to exploit a depleted 49ers secondary and keep this game inside the number.
🔒 Puka Nacua (LAR) Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
This is a lock based on elite volume and a phenomenal track record in this specific matchup. Nacua has an incredible connection with Matthew Stafford and has been a target monster all season. He has a history of absolutely torching this Eagles defense, putting up 97 and 117 receiving yards in his two games against them last season. Against a secondary that has shown vulnerabilities, expect another huge performance from him.
🔒 Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (Spread)
This is a classic sell-high spot on the undefeated Colts. While Indianapolis is 3-0, they have not faced a team of the Rams’ caliber. Los Angeles is coming off a tough, narrow loss to the Eagles and is in a prime bounce-back spot at home. The Rams have a massive advantage on the defensive line, which should disrupt the Colts’ offense and allow a superior Rams team to win by at least a touchdown.
💧 Christian McCaffrey (SF) Under 74.5 Rushing Yards
This is a pure matchup and efficiency fade. While McCaffrey is a workhorse, he has been surprisingly inefficient on the ground this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry behind a struggling offensive line. He now faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that boasts the number one run success rate in the entire NFL and has completely shut down opposing running backs this year.
💧 Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (Spread)
We are leaning on the better team in a bounce-back spot. The Baltimore Ravensare coming off a brutal, last-second loss and will be highly motivated at home. While the Chiefs are always dangerous, their offense has looked neutered and overly dependent on Patrick Mahomes. The Ravens have the superior roster, especially on offense, and should be able to control this game against a Chiefs team that is still trying to find its identity.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
This week’s card is all about capitalizing on scheduling spots and injuries. Our locks on the Rams and Puka Nacua are based on a superior team in a bounce-back spot against an over-performing opponent. We are also fading some of the league’s top running backs, like Christian McCaffrey, who are in brutal matchups against elite run defenses. The key is to look past the team records and focus on the underlying metrics, which point to several underdogs like the Jaguars being undervalued due to their opponent’s extensive injury list.
For Week 4, we also did a separate, dedicated blog breaking down our favorite anytime touchdown props. You can find that article here at our NFL Week 4 Anytime Touchdown Bets blog.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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