Week 4 wraps up with a rare Monday Night Football doubleheader, giving us two fantastic matchups to cap off the slate. For tonight’s card, we’re going big, sprinkling in one of our favorite anytime touchdown bets for each of our Props, Locks, and Drops, giving you three picks in each category.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Over 44.5 Total Points
This game features two defenses that have been among the worst in the league to start the season. The Dolphins rank 31st in defensive DVOA, while the Jets sit at 26th. Both offenses have shown they have the firepower to put up points, and with quarterback Justin Fields expected to return for New York, this divisional matchup has all the ingredients for a back-and-forth shootout that sails over the total.
👍 New York Jets +3
This feels like a classic trap game, and we’re taking the points with the home underdog. The Dolphins’ defense has been abysmal, and the Jets are a much-improved team with Fields under center. Miami has also had a tendency to lose games they are expected to win. In what should be a close divisional battle, getting a field goal with the home team is the right side.
👍 J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Anytime Touchdown Scorer This is a bet on pure volume and a fantastic matchup. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in all three games this season and is the clear goal-line back for the Broncos. He now faces a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this year. In a game where Denver is a heavy favorite, Dobbins will have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
🔒 J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
We are locking in the Broncos’ lead back in a smash spot. Dobbins has cleared this line in all three games this season, looking explosive and efficient while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The game script sets up perfectly, as the Broncos are 7.5-point favorites and will lean on the run game against a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed to running backs.
🔒 Chase Brown (CIN) Over 2.5 Receptions
This is an elite matchup for a pass-catching running back. The Denver Broncos’ defense blitzes at a top-10 rate, which will put backup quarterback Jake Browning under constant pressure and force him to look for quick check-downs. Brown is the primary receiving back for the Bengals and should see a heavy dose of targets as a safety valve against the blitz.
🔒 Devon Achane (MIA) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We are not overthinking this one. Achane has been an absolute touchdown machine, scoring in all but three games with Tua Tagovailoa under center over the last two seasons. He is the best playmaker on the field for the Dolphins and is a threat to score as both a runner and a receiver. In a game that is expected to be high-scoring, we are locking in the most explosive player to find the end zone.
💧 Denver Broncos -7
This is a lean on a dominant defense against a broken offense. The Bengals are in a terrible spot, starting a backup quarterback behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They now have to travel to Denver to play in the altitude against a Broncos defense that is first in the league in sacks and QB hits. This is a nightmare matchup for Cincinnati, and a blowout is a very likely outcome.
💧 Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
This is a bet on elite talent and volume. Wilson gets his quarterback back in Justin Fields, who has a history of hyper-targeting his number one receiver. Wilson now gets a great matchup against a Dolphins defense that has been “historically bad” and is allowing the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. In a pass-heavy game script, Wilson should easily clear this number.
💧 Justin Fields (NYJ) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
This is a great value play on one of the best red-zone rushing threats among quarterbacks. Despite missing time, Fields still leads the Jets in red-zone carries. He now faces a Dolphins run defense that is ranked 28th by PFF and has already given up three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s doubleheader presents two very different matchups, but our card is built around clear, actionable angles. In the first game, we are fading two of the league’s worst defenses by taking the over and backing the home underdog Jets to keep it close. In the late game, we are heavily invested in the Broncos’ dominance, particularly their running game with J.K. Dobbins, against a Bengals team that is completely broken without its starting quarterback. The touchdown props are all centered on players with elite red-zone usage in highly favorable matchups.
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