Monday Night Football is giving us a doubleheader tonight, featuring two high-stakes matchups with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders taking on the Chicago Bears. To match the big slate, we’re giving you a bonus pick for each category. That’s right—three Props, three Locks, and three Drops to give you plenty of action for both games.
How have we continued to find winning angles? Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Bijan Robinson (ATL) Over 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Robinson has been an absolute machine, clearing this line in every single game this season. He is a three-down workhorse who is heavily involved in both the running and passing games. He now gets a great matchup against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run, giving him multiple paths to rack up yards and have another huge performance.
👍 James Cook (BUF) Anytime Touchdown
Cook is one of the most reliable touchdown scorers for the Bills, finding the end zone in 14 of their last 17 victories. He was held scoreless last week and has not gone back-to-back games without a touchdown since last season, making him due for a score in a game where Buffalo is expected to put up points.
👍 Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Over 49.5
This game has all the ingredients for a shootout. The Commanders feature the league’s number one rushing attack, and they are facing a Bears defense that ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed. On the other side, Caleb Williams has shown he can exploit man coverage, which Washington plays frequently. With both offenses holding clear advantages over the opposing defenses, expect plenty of points to be scored .
🔒 Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) Over 69.5 Rushing Yards
This is an elite matchup for Washington’s lead back, who is coming off a 111-yard performance. He faces a Chicago Bears defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the run, allowing a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry . With Croskey-Merritt expected to handle a heavy workload, he is in a perfect position to have a massive day on the ground .
🔒 Bijan Robinson (ATL) Anytime Touchdown
We are doubling down on the Falcons’ star rookie in a fantastic matchup. Robinson leads Atlanta in both red zone carries and red zone targets, making him the clear go-to option when they are in scoring position. He faces a Bills defense that ranks 26th in the league against running back touchdowns, creating a prime opportunity for him to find the end zone.
🔒 Buffalo Bills Moneyline
The Bills are in a classic bounce-back spot after a frustrating loss last week. Buffalo has historically performed well in these situations and is simply the more talented and proven team in this matchup. While Atlanta is well-rested off a bye, they haven’t faced a quarterback with the dual-threat ability of Josh Allen, who is expected to carry his team to a much-needed road victory.
💧 Josh Allen (BUF) Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
This play is based on a direct matchup advantage. The Falcons’ defense generates pressure at one of the highest rates in the league, which historically forces Josh Allen to use his legs more often . He averages 47 rushing yards per game following a loss and has a proven tendency to scramble against the man-heavy coverage schemes that Atlanta frequently employs.
💧 Rome Odunze (CHI) Anytime Touchdown
Odunze has been a touchdown machine, scoring five touchdowns in just four games and finding the end zone in every contest this season. He is Caleb Williams’ go-to target in the red zone, commanding an incredible 31.6% target share. He faces a Washington defense that plays a high rate of man coverage, a scheme that Odunze has consistently dominated.
💧 Chicago Bears Moneyline
This is a strong situational spot for a home underdog. The Bears are coming off a bye week, giving them a significant rest and preparation advantage over a Commanders team that is dealing with major injuries to its top wide receivers. In a primetime divisional game where underdogs often keep things close, Chicago has a solid chance to pull off the upset at home.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s doubleheader card is centered on exploiting clear matchup advantages, particularly on the ground. Our locks feature two running backs, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Bijan Robinson, who are facing defenses that rank at the very bottom of the league in stopping the run. We are also backing elite talent to bounce back, with the Buffalo Bills favored to win after a frustrating loss. The Washington and Chicago game projects as a high-scoring affair, making the over and touchdown props in that contest very appealing. Overall, we’re targeting volume players in plus-matchups and motivated teams in good situational spots.
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