The NBA season is back, and after an electric opening night, we have a massive slate of games to dive into. We’ve been on a great run in the NFL and MLB and are ready to bring that same energy to the hardwood. With that said, we’re focusing heavily on player props this Friday. It’s still early, so we suggest taking it a little easy until we get some more data on these new lineups.
Still, we did our hours of research and are using our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis📈, and AI insights 🤖 to find tonight’s best value.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 36.5 PRA Sengun is the primary playmaker for Houston with Fred VanVleet out, a role he showcased with a 57 PRA performance in the opener (albeit in double overtime). He has a phenomenal matchup against a Detroit Pistons team that struggled last season, ranking in the bottom 10 against opposing centers in points, rebounds, and assists. Sengun averaged 38 PRA against them last year and should crush this line.
👍 Davion Mitchell (MIA) Over 17.5 Points + Assists With Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier both out, Mitchell is the starting point guard and main facilitator. He proved he’s up to the task with 28 P+A (16 points, 12 assists) in 35 minutes against a tough Magic defense. Now he gets a massive pace-up game against a fast-paced Grizzlies team that was “horrendous” on defense last year. This line is far too low for his new role.
🔒 Victor Wembanyama (SAS) Over 42.5 PRA This line feels like free money. Wembanyama is coming off an unbelievable 58 PRA (40 points, 15 rebounds, 3 assists) performance against one of the league’s best defenders in Anthony Davis. Now he faces a “soft” New Orleans Pelicans defense that just allowed 128 points to Memphis and ranked in the bottom 10 against centers in all three categories last season. Expect another dominant performance.
💧 Anthony Davis (LAL) Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds This is an “elite smash spot” and a “massive bounce-back game” for Davis. After a tough defensive battle with Wembanyama where he still put up 35 P+R, he now gets the Washington Wizards. The Wizards were arguably the worst defensive and rebounding team in the league last season, and they just allowed Giannis to post 37 points and 14 rebounds against them. Expect a similar dominant performance from AD.
💧 Cooper Flagg (DAL) Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists After a quiet debut (10 points, 10 rebounds) that was overshadowed by Wembanyama, the first overall pick is poised for his first great NBA performance. He gets a “significant downgrade” in competition, facing arguably the worst team in basketball. The Wizards’ defense was atrocious last season, ranking near the bottom in points, rebounds, and assists allowed, making this the perfect spot for the well-rounded phenom to fill the stat sheet.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis Tonight’s card is all about the big men and rookie phenoms. We’re backing Wembanyama, Sengun, and Anthony Davis in smash spots where they have massive matchup advantages against some of the league’s worst defenses. We’re also riding the injury-driven value with Davion Mitchell, who has stepped up as Miami’s primary point guard, and backing Cooper Flagg to have his official breakout game against the Wizards.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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