We have a massive night of NBA action ahead with a packed slate. The board is loaded with value, especially on player props where several key players are in great matchups. We’re keying in on some rookies who have seen their roles expand, established stars in prime spots, and a few players who are simply lined too low for their new opportunities.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Stephon Castle (SAS) Over 25.5 Points + Assists This is a volume play on the Spurs’ rookie. Castle has cleared this line in his last three games, posting 31, 28, and 26 combined points and assists. With rookie backup point guard Dylan Harper out for this game, Castle is really the only point guard left and should see a massive amount of playing time. The Spurs will need him to be aggressive and dominate the ball.
👍 Ja Morant (MEM) Under 22.5 Points We are fading Morant in a tough spot. He has already been under this line in four of his seven games this season and has been vocal about his unhappiness in Memphis. Now he faces a difficult individual matchup against Amen Thompson, one of the league’s better guard defenders, and a Rockets team that has a top four defensive rating.
🔒 Keyonte George (UTA) Over 22.5 Points This line is simply too low for a player who has been scoring at will. George is averaging 23 points per game and has scored 25 or more in four of his last five contests. He’s been playing phenomenally, and even in a game where his rebounds and assists dipped, his scoring has remained elite. We’re trusting the hot hand.
🔒 Alex Sarr (WAS) Over 7.5 Rebounds This has been an automatic cash. Sarr has grabbed eight or more rebounds in six of his seven games this season, averaging a massive 18 rebound chances per game. He’s a lock for heavy minutes and now gets a great matchup against a small Celtics team that ranks in the bottom five for rebounds allowed to opposing centers.
💧 Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 6.5 Assists We’re getting great plus money value on this prop. Sengun is averaging 7.3 assists and has hit this over in four of his six games. His volume is massive, logging 15 or more potential assists in his last three games. He should have no problem finding open shooters against a Grizzlies team that struggles to defend the rim and the three point line.
💧 Jalen Brunson (NYK) Over 27.5 Points Brunson faces a Timberwolves defense that has been absolutely atrocious against point guards, ranking dead last in the NBA and allowing the most points to the position. He has been on fire, clearing this line in five of his last six games. This is a fantastic matchup, and Brunson should have no trouble exploiting it.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s card is focused on volume and matchups. We’re backing players who are stepping into much larger roles due to injuries, like Stephon Castle and Aaron Nesmith, who will have the ball in their hands all night. We’re also hitting elite matchups, with Jalen Brunson facing the league’s worst defense against point guards and Alex Sarr facing a weak rebounding Celtics frontcourt.
Finally, we’re fading a disgruntled Ja Morant in a tough defensive matchup while trusting the high-volume playmakers like Alperen Sengun to continue their elite passing.
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