We have a loaded Wednesday set of games with plenty of star power and some fantastic matchups to exploit. We are targeting versatile wings who are filling up the stat sheet, dominant big men with “dream” matchups, and a couple of scorers who are simply too hot to fade right now.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Cade Cunningham (DET) Over 5.5 Rebounds The Bucks have struggled significantly to keep guards off the glass this season. Cunningham is averaging nine rebounds per game over his last five contests and has cleared this line in seven of his last eight. He ranks second on the Pistons with 11.4 rebound chances per game, often cleaning up boards that drift away from the paint while Jalen Duren battles inside .
👍 Jalen Johnson (ATL) Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds Johnson has been “on fire,” soaring over this number in eight of his last 10 games while averaging a massive 37.2 points and rebounds per game. He faces a Clippers defense that ranks as the second worst in the NBA against small forwards, giving up the second most points and rebounds to the position. With his volume increasing recently, this is a smash spot .
🔒 Anthony Edwards (MIN) Over 28.5 Points “Ant-Man” is a man on a mission right now, having scored 30 or more points in five straight games. He is averaging an absurd 37 points per game in that stretch and now gets to face a Pelicans defense that ranks dead last in points allowed to shooting guards. He has stated he wants to be more aggressive, and this matchup is perfect for him to continue his dominance .
🔒 Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 22.5 Points This is as good of a matchup as you can ask for. The Kings allow the most points per game to centers over the last 30 days and rank as the worst defense in the NBA at guarding post-ups. Sengun has scored 25+ points in almost every game this year and dropped 30 on Sacramento the last time they played. He should be able to cook in the paint all night .
💧 Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) Over 23.5 Points MPJ has gone over this line in four of his last five games and historically crushes in fast-paced matchups. He faces a Bulls team that gives up the fifth most points in the league to forwards. With the Nuggets’ offense clicking, Porter Jr. should see plenty of open looks in transition and from deep against a Chicago defense that allows stats across the board .
💧 Cooper Flagg (Duke) Over 17.5 Points We are dipping into the college ranks for this lean. Flagg is listed with a line of 17.5 points in a matchup against Florida. Duke boasts a top-5 offense nationally, and this game is expected to have plenty of tempo. In a high-scoring environment, Flagg should have ample opportunities to put up points.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s card is built around exploiting specific defensive weaknesses. We are attacking the Kings’ inability to defend the post with Sengun and the Pelicans’ poor perimeter defense with Edwards. We also love the rebounding floor for Cade Cunningham against a Bucks team that leaks boards to guards.
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