We are diving headfirst into the end zone for this Week 17 Sunday slate. With playoff seedings on the line and defenses worn down from a long season, we have identified the players with the best red-zone roles and the juiciest matchups. Today is all about volume, opportunity, and exploiting defenses that have given up.
Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Jauan Jennings (SF) Anytime Touchdown Jennings has been an absolute touchdown machine lately, finding the paint in six of his last seven games with seven total scores in that span. He has developed incredible chemistry with Brock Purdy in the red zone and has become a primary target near the goal line, especially with George Kittle banged up. With the 49ers offense clicking and facing a Bears defense that struggles to stop wideouts, we expect Jennings to keep his hot streak alive on Sunday Night Football.
👍 James Cook (BUF) Anytime Touchdown Cook has been on a tear, scoring five touchdowns in his last two games alone. He ranks third in the NFL with 54 red-zone looks and is the undisputed engine of the Bills offense right now. He gets a favorable matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 23rd in touchdowns allowed to running backs and 10th in rushing touchdowns allowed. With Buffalo needing this win for seeding, expect them to continue feeding their hot hand near the goal line.
🔒 Trey McBride (ARI) Anytime Touchdown This is arguably the best matchup on the board for a tight end. The Bengals defense has allowed the most touchdowns to the position this season (15) and ranks as one of the worst units in history against tight ends. McBride commands a massive target share and will be the focal point of the Cardinals offense, making him our favorite bet to score against a unit that simply cannot stop the position.
🔒 Saquon Barkley (PHI) Anytime Touchdown Barkley gets a dream matchup against a Buffalo Bills defense that has surrendered 20 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, the second most in the NFL. They are giving up nearly 144 yards per game on the ground and have allowed a rushing score in four straight games. Barkley is explosive enough to score from anywhere, and the Eagles will rely on him heavily to control the clock in this massive game.
💧 Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) Anytime Touchdown Chase has gone seven straight games without a touchdown, which is an eternity for a player of his caliber. He has been vocal in the media about needing the ball, and the Bengals face an Arizona defense that is depleted and ranks poorly against the pass. We expect Joe Burrow to force-feed his superstar receiver to get him back in the box score in what should be a high-scoring affair.
💧 Stefon Diggs (NE) Anytime Touchdown Diggs has emerged as one of the only healthy and reliable receivers for Drake Maye in this Patriots offense. He went off against man coverage last week and faces a Jets team that has completely checked out on the season. With the Jets struggling to defend wide receiver ones, we like Diggs to find the end zone as the primary target for a rookie quarterback making an MVP push.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Our strategy for this Week 17 Sunday card is simple: follow the volume and the defensive liabilities. We are attacking the Bengals’ historic inability to cover tight ends with Trey McBride and the Bills’ porous run defense with Saquon Barkley. We are also backing players like Jauan Jennings and James Cook who have high usage rates and specific motivations to score. It’s the time of year where stars shine brightest, so we are putting our money on the guys who get the ball when it matters most.
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