We are closing out Wild Card Weekend with a bang, featuring a tripleheader of action that includes Josh Allen trying to exercise his road playoff demons and a heavyweight NFC clash in Philadelphia. Because the slate is so loaded, we are giving you bonus bets today and breaking this blog down into two distinct parts. First, we will attack the game lines and player yardage props, and then we will have a separate section dedicated exclusively to finding the end zone with our favorite Anytime Touchdown scorers.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Part 1: Game Picks & Player Props
👍 Josh Allen (BUF) Over 38.5 Rushing Yards Playoff Josh Allen is a different animal. He averages 51.4 rushing yards per game in his postseason career and isn’t afraid to put the team on his back when the season is on the line. He has cleared 10 rushing attempts in three of his last four playoff games, and with the Jaguars possessing an elite run defense against traditional handoffs, Buffalo will need Allen’s legs to create offense.
👍 Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline The Eagles are the healthiest team entering the postseason, while the 49ers are limping in with massive injuries to key stars like Trent Williams and their linebacker core. Philadelphia wins in the trenches, and their run game should be able to dominate a depleted San Francisco front seven. We expect the Eagles to control this game at home against a reeling Niners squad.
🔒 Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 18.5 Rush Attempts We are expecting a heavy dose of Saquon in this matchup. He has been ramped up significantly down the stretch, recording 20, 22, 21, and 19 carries in his last four games. With the Eagles favored and their offensive line healthy, the game plan will be to use Barkley as a battering ram to control the clock and keep the 49ers offense on the sideline.
🔒 New England Patriots Moneyline The Patriots finished the season with the best offense in the league by EPA/play and are a different beast at Foxboro. They are facing a Chargers team with a banged-up offensive line missing both starting tackles, which is a recipe for disaster against New England’s surging pass rush. We trust the better squad on both sides of the ball to handle business at home.
💧 Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 27.5 Rushing Yards Herbert has cleared this line in nine games this season and finished fourth among all quarterbacks in total scrambles. New England’s defense is stout, which often forces quarterbacks to tuck and run to extend plays. Coming off a rest week, Herbert will be fresh and willing to use his legs to keep his team in the game.
💧 Buffalo Bills Moneyline This is a “heart pick,” but we believe the Bills understand their window is closing and will dig deep to find a way to win. This is arguably the best path Josh Allen has ever had to a Super Bowl without the Chiefs or Bengals in his way, and we expect him to play like Superman to avoid another early exit.
Part 2: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Special
We are keeping the momentum going with a dedicated section for finding the paint. Here are our top touchdown bets for Sunday’s slate.
👍 Josh Allen (BUF) Anytime Touchdown Allen accounts for nearly 28% of the Bills’ red zone rush attempts, and in the playoffs, he becomes their primary goal-line weapon. He has a great matchup to use his size and physicality near the stripe, and we expect him to take matters into his own hands when they get close.
👍 Travis Etienne (JAX) Anytime Touchdown Etienne has the easiest matchup on the board against a Buffalo run defense that has hemorrhaged yards all season. He has seen 15+ touches in five straight games, and with the Bills ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed, he should have plenty of opportunities to break a long one or punch it in from short yardage.
🔒 Saquon Barkley (PHI) Anytime Touchdown Barkley is a different animal in the postseason, having scored five touchdowns in four playoff games last year. He has found the end zone in three of his last four games entering this week and will be the focal point of the Eagles’ offense. The 49ers have allowed 17 touchdowns to running backs this season, making this a smash spot for Saquon.
🔒 Christian McCaffrey (SF) Anytime Touchdown The 49ers will lean on their superstar until he breaks. McCaffrey is the number one option for this offense, especially with injuries elsewhere, and he has to put the team on his back for them to have a chance. The Eagles have surrendered a significant number of red zone carries to backs, and McCaffrey’s volume makes him a lock to get looks near the goal line.
💧 TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Anytime Touchdown Henderson has established himself as a key part of the Patriots’ backfield, scoring in multiple games down the stretch. While the Chargers defense is solid, they have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to backs this year. As the lead back for a high-powered offense in a home playoff game, his odds offer great value.
💧 Ladd McConkey (LAC) Anytime Touchdown McConkey scored six touchdowns during the regular season and has quickly become Justin Herbert’s favorite target. In a game where the Chargers are likely trailing, they will be forced to throw, and McConkey is the guy Herbert looks for in crucial situations.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
We are all in on the rushing attacks for Sunday’s slate. Whether it’s quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert using their legs to extend drives or bell-cow backs like Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey shouldering the load, the ground game will decide these contests. We are also fading the 49ers and Chargers due to critical injuries on their offensive lines and defenses, trusting the healthier, more complete teams in Philadelphia and New England to advance.
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