Mid-July baseball always brings swings: young arms looking to prove themselves, veteran lineups finding mid-season rhythm, and bullpens teetering on overuse. Tonight’s card may be shorter, but it’s packed with spots where recent form and matchup data line up. We’re locking in six plays that stand out before the first pitch.
Our model has been dialed in all season long, and to find today’s best value, we’re using our proven 3-step model – data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Bryan Woo Over 4.5 Strikeouts – Internal projections peg him near seven Ks, and he’s posted 24 scoreless innings across his last four starts with a .182 opponent OBP. The Yankees sit bottom-10 in whiff rate versus four-seamers, the pitch he throws more than half the time.
👍 Seattle Mariners Moneyline – Woo’s 0.72 ERA over those four outings meets a Yankees staff rolling out Marcus Stroman, who owns a 7.45 ERA in his last five. Seattle has taken seven of Woo’s eight starts, and New York’s bullpen has been tagged for an 8+ ERA this week.
🔒 Roman Anthony Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – The rookie has cashed this line in nine of his last ten games and is batting .364 in July. Hitting second maximizes plate appearances, and he draws a right-hander allowing a .360 OBP to lefties.
🔒 Nationals vs Cardinals Over 8.5 Runs – Michael Soroka and Miles Mikolas combine for an ERA north of eight over recent starts, each surrendering crooked numbers in back-to-back outings. With both pens overworked, even average offense should push this past nine.
💧 Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 Runs – Boston’s lineup has poured in 29 runs over its last three contests and faces a starter who owns a 4.04 road ERA with shaky command. Fenway’s summer conditions only help the cause.
💧 Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline – Randy Vásquez’s expected ERA sits in the bottom five percent of the league, and Arizona profiles well against low-strikeout righties. Eduardo Rodríguez gives the Snakes a starting edge, though late-inning volatility keeps this as a lean.
🔍 Final Thoughts & Trend Analysis
Today’s market leans heavily on riding lineups in peak form (Boston, Washington) and fading starters stuck in rough patches (Mikolas, Soroka, Stroman). Strikeout props on surging young arms like Woo also surface repeatedly in the data.
Our card follows those angles: Woo’s strikeout ceiling and Seattle’s momentum headline the Props, Anthony’s hot bat and a high-total matchup lock in as sure things, while Boston’s scoring surge and Arizona’s model edge remain lighter exposure plays.
For more daily picks, breakdowns, and all your betting help, make sure to visit ReCover3Sports.com and our ReCover 3 Linktree! Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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