The weekend is almost here, but the Friday NBA games give a lot of opportunity. We are seeing some huge injury news open up value, specifically with the Celtics and Cavaliers, while the Pelicans get a dream matchup at home. Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Jarrett Allen (CLE) Over 13.5 Points With Evan Mobley and Darius Garland out, the offense naturally funnels toward Allen in the paint. He has been averaging over 20 points per 30 minutes in this specific lineup configuration and has seen his usage spike significantly. Against a Phoenix team on a back-to-back, he should have plenty of opportunities to finish around the rim and clear this number.
👍 Jalen Suggs (ORL) Over 14.5 Points Suggs has the ultimate green light right now with Franz Wagner out, attempting 28 shots over his last two games alone. He always seems to find extra motivation when playing against Scottie Barnes, and the Raptors rank 26th in the league at defending spot-up shooters. The volume is undeniable here, and playing at home usually brings out his best performances.
🔒 Payton Pritchard (BOS) Over 20.5 Points With Jaylen Brown doubtful, Pritchard becomes the primary scoring option for the second unit and sees a massive usage increase. In the three games he has played without Brown this season, he is averaging 25.3 points per game and putting up over 20 shots a night. He faces a Kings defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in defending the paint and point guards, making this a perfect spot for him to cook.
🔒 Saddiq Bey (NO) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds Bey is coming off a monster performance against this same Grizzlies team just a week ago where he dropped 36 points and grabbed 4 rebounds. Memphis ranks dead last in points allowed to small forwards over their last seven games, and Bey has hit this line in 80% of his last 10 starts. With the Grizzlies missing so many bodies, he should fill the stat sheet again.
💧 Jock Landale (MEM) To Record a Double Double The Grizzlies are decimated in the frontcourt without Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, leaving Landale to play huge minutes. He posted 24 points and 11 rebounds against this Pelicans team just last week. New Orleans allows the ninth most rebounds to centers, so if he gets the minutes, the double-double is very much in play.
💧 Kawhi Leonard (LAC) Over 19.5 Points This is a consistency play, as Kawhi has hit this over in 10 straight games and hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points since late November. He is averaging 26.4 points over that span and historically performs well in this matchup. It might be a boring bet, but he has been automatic on this number for weeks.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight is all about capitalizing on the massive injury news that is opening up usage for key role players. We are aggressively targeting guys like Payton Pritchard and Jarrett Allen who are stepping into primary roles due to teammates being out. The other key trend is fading teams on difficult back-to-backs, which puts the Wizards and Kings on our fade list. Expect high scores in the Phoenix/Cleveland game, but the Pelicans and Knicks should control their games with defense.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing! sdfsdf
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