The NBA season is finally here, and it kicks off tonight with a blockbuster doubleheader. The excitement is back, and while we’ve been on an absolute tear in the NFL and MLB, so we’re ready to carry that momentum onto the hardwood.
How have we continued to hit? It’s all about the process. With that said, we still did our hours of research, but we recommend taking it a little easy on opening night until we get some more data on these new lineups. Still, we are using our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 to find the best value.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Deandre Ayton (LAL) Over 10.5 Rebounds Ayton is on a new team and is highly motivated for a fresh start in Los Angeles. He gets a fantastic opening-night matchup against an undersized Warriors team that ranked 25th in rebounding and was a bottom-five team at giving up boards to opposing centers last season. With LeBron James out, Ayton will be the primary big on the floor and should dominate the glass.
👍 Stephen Curry (GSW) Over 26.5 Points Steph Curry simply owns the Lakers. He has scored 37 points in each of his last two games in Los Angeles and faces a Laker defense that ranked 27th against opposing point guards last season. In a high-paced game with the national spotlight, expect Curry to have a high-volume shooting night and continue his dominance in this matchup.
🔒 Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline We’re backing the defending champions at home on their banner night. The Thunder were an incredible 37-15-2 against the spread at home last season, and they face a Rockets team that is still figuring itself out. Houston is integrating Kevin Durant and is starting the season without their primary point guard, Fred VanVleet, which is a nightmare scenario against OKC’s elite defense.
🔒 Luka Dončić (LAL) Over 47.5 Points + Assists With LeBron James officially out, this is Luka’s team. His usage and offensive responsibility will be massive. In games without LeBron last season, Dončić saw his assist numbers skyrocket, averaging 8.8 per game. He is primed for a huge 2025, looked fantastic in the preseason, and will have the ball in his hands on every single possession. He will be responsible for all the scoring and distribution.
💧 Golden State Warriors Moneyline This is a lean on the more cohesive and experienced unit. The Warriors return their veteran core of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, who have championship continuity. They face a Lakers team that is trying to integrate new superstars in Luka Dončić and Deandre Ayton, all while playing without their leader, LeBron James. We trust the champs to handle their business on the road.
💧 Amen Thompson (HOU) Over 6.5 Rebounds This is one of the strongest prop matchups on the board. With Fred VanVleet out, Thompson, a 6’7″ point guard, takes on a larger “point-forward” role. He hit this line in 88% of games where he played 32+ minutes last season. He now faces a Thunder team that ranked 26th in rebounds allowed to opposing point guards, a clear mismatch that Thompson can exploit.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis Opening Night is all about superstars and new-look rosters. Our card is centered on the massive opportunity for Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves to dominate usage with LeBron James out. We’re also backing the Lakers’ new big man, Deandre Ayton, in a fantastic rebounding matchup. In the first game, we’re locking in the defending champion Thunder at home against a Rockets team that is still finding its identity and is missing its starting point guard.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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