We have a massive Wednesday slate in the NBA, and the board is overflowing with value. For today’s edition of Props, Locks, and Drops, we are doing something a little different: we are going with an all-player-prop card. We have identified several players in elite usage spots due to injuries, as well as stars with historic dominance against their specific opponents tonight.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Josh Giddey (CHI) Over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists This line feels significantly too low given the game environment. Giddey is averaging 19.7 combined rebounds and assists on the season, more than two full units above this number. Even with Coby White returning, Giddey remains the primary playmaker, and this matchup against Portland features two of the top three teams in pace, which should create plenty of extra possessions for peripheral stats.
👍 Tyrese Maxey (PHI) Over 31.5 Points With Joel Embiid and Paul George both ruled out again, Maxey is the undisputed engine of the Sixers’ offense. In games without his co-stars, his usage rate skyrockets to over 33%, and he is already averaging 32.5 points per game on the season. He should play upwards of 40 minutes in a competitive game against Toronto, giving him ample volume to clear this number.
🔒 Andre Drummond (PHI) Double-Double Drummond has been a monster when filling in as the starter, recording a double-double in five consecutive games. He is averaging 14.3 points and 13.5 rebounds while playing over 30 minutes a night in Embiid’s absence. The Raptors have allowed points in the restricted area at a high rate, and Drummond should have no trouble cleaning up the glass and getting easy putbacks to secure another double-double.
🔒 Alperen Sengun (HOU) Over 16.5 Rebounds + Assists Sengun has been a consistency machine, clearing this line in 10 of his 12 games this season (an 83% hit rate). He faces a Cavaliers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in both rebounds and assists allowed to opponents. Sengun has hit this number in nine straight games and should continue to fill the box score against a Cleveland frontcourt that can be exploited on the boards and with passing angles.
💧 Benedict Mathurin (IND) Over 20.5 Points Mathurin has been electric since making his season debut, scoring 25 or more points in all three of his games. He boasts a team-high 30.3% usage rate and is attacking the basket relentlessly. He gets a soft matchup against a Hornets defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency and struggles to protect the paint, setting him up for another high-scoring performance.
💧 Anthony Edwards (MIN) Over 27.5 Points Edwards absolutely loves playing against the Washington Wizards, having scored 34, 38, 41, and 51 points in his recent meetings with them. The Wizards rank dead last in defensive rating and give up the most points per game to opposing guards. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Edwards has shown he can rack up 30 points in three quarters against this specific defense.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Today’s all-prop card is built around capitalizing on expanded roles and specific matchup advantages. We are attacking the massive usage vacuum in Philadelphia with both Maxey and Drummond, while also targeting weak interior defenses with Sengun and Edwards. Finally, we’re banking on the high pace of the Bulls-Blazers game to help Josh Giddey stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories.
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