With a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, the Knicks host the Pacers tonight hoping to force a Game 6 — and the winner of this Eastern Conference battle will face the Oklahoma City Thunder, who clinched the Western Conference title last night. While our trends and betting sources consistently leaned toward Pacers ML, we believe New York’s home court advantage and playoff experience give them a real shot to extend the series another game.
We’ve now hit 11 of our last 12 official Props, Locks & Drops picks, and 31 of our last 41 overall, a hit rate of over 75% — 31 of our last 41.
We’ve been right around that % all season too. How, you might ask?
Using our proven 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 — we’ve locked in the top plays for tonight’s action.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Josh Hart Over 8.5 Rebounds 👍 — Hart has gone over this total in six of his last ten games, and three of the four games in this series. He’s averaged nearly 18 rebound chances per game over his last five and hit this over in 15 of his last 17 matchups against Indiana.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists 👍 — Haliburton has gone over 10 assists in three of the four games this series and is coming off a 15-assist, 0-turnover game. He’s hit double-digit assists in 8 of his 14 playoff games overall. (Source: Covers, Pick Plug, Action Network, FanDuel Research, Bill Harrelson)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds 🔒 — Towns has gone over 20+ points in each game this seriesand has cleared this PR line in 6 of his last 10 games. His matchup versus Indiana’s frontcourt gives him a big edge on the glass.
Jalen Brunson Over 30.5 Points 🔒 — Brunson has topped 30 points in three of the four games in this series and is averaging over 33 PPG in the Eastern Conference Finals. In elimination spots at MSG, he’s taken over. (Source: SportsLine, Action Network, Fantasy Aces, Cody Brown Bets)
Myles Turner Over 12+ Points (Alt Line) 💧 — While the official line sits at 14.5, we feel safer with a 12+ alt line. Turner has gone over 14.5 in all four games this series, but his shot volume is still inconsistent. (Source: Taso Guy Boston Sports, Dead President Picks, PariahBets)
Knicks Moneyline 💧 — Trends and data lean toward the Pacers winning outright, with multiple sources backing Indiana on the road. But we believe the Knicks have enough fight left to force a Game 6 at home. We’ll likely target an alt spread instead. (Source: Greedo Plays, Coast 2 Coast, FanDuel Research, WagerTalk TV)
📉 Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis
Across the 50+ betting sources we tracked for tonight, the strongest individual player prop trend was Josh Hart Over 8.5 Rebounds, appearing repeatedly from both stat-based and trend-based analysts. Haliburton’s assist line also ranked among the most consistent mentions, especially in correlation parlays with Indiana team totals. Both have cleared their respective lines in most of this series and remain high-usage roles in Game 5.
The most discussed side was Pacers Moneyline, backed by over a dozen analysts as the better team with greater depth. However, our model leans toward the Knicks’ home-court desperation edge, and we believe New York will force a Game 6 behind Brunson’s shot volume and Tibbs’ adjustments.
Let’s stay hot as we move toward the Finals!
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