It’s Game 1 for both second-round NBA matchups, and we’ve scoured every angle to bring you the sharpest possible plays. After hours of matchup research, stat analysis, and trusted consensus picks, we’ve built our edge from the ground up.
Using our proven 3-step model — data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 — we’ve locked in the top plays for tonight’s action.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points 👍 — Brunson’s hit 27+ in 8 of his last 10 playoff games and continues to dominate usage for the Knicks. He took 24+ shots in every game vs Philly and will have to carry again with Randle out and OG questionable.
Josh Hart Over 25.5 PRA 👍 — Hart has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games vs Boston. His rebounding and playmaking usage are elite, and he’s averaging over 38 minutes per game in the playoffs.
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds 🔒 — Jokic has crushed the glass against OKC, averaging 25.6 rebound chances per game across five matchups. He had 14+ boards in 4 of those and is projected to play 40+ minutes in a tight road game.
Derrick White Over 19 Points + Assists 🔒 — White has cleared this in 4 of 5 playoff games and 4 straight vs New York. He’s averaged 23.1 P+A at home and plays a key role in both transition offense and second-side actions.
Celtics Moneyline 💧 — Most models favor Boston at home, but a 9-point spread adds variance. With the Knicks coming off a confidence-building series and Boston’s recent inconsistency, we’re not locking in the ML at this price.
Thunder Moneyline 💧 — OKC should be sharp at home after rest, but Denver’s experience and Jokic’s form make this a higher-risk side. We lean Thunder, but prefer to build around props in this spot.
📉 Final Thoughts/Trend Analysis
The most mentioned and consensus-backed picks in today’s notes were Derrick White P+A Over and Josh Hart PRA Over, each appearing across multiple expert slates. There was also strong volume behind Brunson 25+ alt lines, Celtics TT Over, and SGA scoring props, but none matched the strength of the four props above.
Jokic’s rebounding dominance stood out as the most trusted anchor, and several analysts flagged it as their top lock of the day. SGA and Jalen Williams were also noted for same-game parlays, especially stacking OKC scoring with Thunder ML. If you’re building one, we’d start with Jokic rebounds, White P+A, and Brunson 25+ points as a base.
Let’s stay hot as we move toward the next round!
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