The Divisional Round is finally here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. We have four incredible matchups featuring elite defenses, rookie sensations, and quarterbacks ready to put their teams on their backs. We dug deep into the data to find the edges where Vegas is sleeping, especially on quarterback mobility and red zone usage. Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Drake Maye (NE) Over Rushing Yards Expect Maye to be running for his life in this one. The Texans allow a league-high 9.2 yards per scramble, and with the pressure Houston generates, Maye will be flushed out of the pocket constantly. He led the league in scrambles this season and has cleared 20 rushing yards in five straight games, making this a great spot for his legs to be a factor.
👍 Luther Burden (CHI) Over Receptions Burden has been a reliable target for Caleb Williams, especially when plays break down. He operates largely from the slot where the Rams defense has been vulnerable, and in a game where Chicago will likely need to pass to keep up, expect him to see plenty of quick targets. He has at least three catches in nine straight games, providing a very safe floor.
👍 Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Anytime Touchdown This is a death, taxes, and Charbonnet first touchdown type of angle. He dominates the red zone work for Seattle with a 53% run share inside the 20 compared to Kenneth Walker. He has scored four touchdowns in his last three games and virtually lives in the end zone when Seattle gets close, making this one of the safest bets on the board.
🔒 Caleb Williams (CHI) Over Pass Attempts Williams has averaged over 34 pass attempts per game this season and has cashed the over on this line in nine of his last 10 games. The Rams are favored here, meaning Chicago will likely be playing from behind or in a shootout script that forces them to abandon the run. Against a Rams secondary that allows high volume, Williams is going to be airing it out all night.
🔒 Bo Nix (DEN) Over Rushing Yards Playoff football forces quarterbacks to use their legs, and Nix has been running wild lately with over 40 yards in back-to-back games. The Bills defense plays a lot of two-high safety looks, which naturally invites quarterbacks to take the underneath scramble lanes. With the season on the line, don’t expect Nix to hesitate to tuck it and run.
🔒 Josh Allen (BUF) Anytime Touchdown We are entering “Superman” territory for Josh Allen. He has scored eight rushing touchdowns in his last seven playoff games and with his wide receiver room absolutely decimated by injuries, he is going to call his own number in the red zone. The Broncos struggle against the run, and inside the five-yard line, this is 100% Allen’s ball.
💧 Jake Tonges (SF) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards With George Kittle officially out, Tonges steps into the TE1 role where he has thrived previously. In games without Kittle, he has hit the over in five of six contests, often seeing significant volume. Seattle ranks in the bottom 10 at defending tight ends, so Purdy will be looking for his safety blanket over the middle often.
💧 Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) Over 1.5 Field Goals Made The Texans have a habit of stalling out in the red zone, and against a Belichick-style Patriots defense that bends but doesn’t break, field goals are likely. Fairbairn has been automatic this season, and in a gritty defensive battle where points are at a premium, Houston will take the three points every time they cross the 30.
💧 Puka Nacua (LAR) Anytime Touchdown Nacua has been unstoppable, scoring in four consecutive games coming into this weekend. The Bears defense allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season. He is the engine of this offense, and Stafford looks for him relentlessly when they get into scoring position.
💰 Bonus Picks: Moneyline Winners
Buffalo Bills It comes down to trust, and we trust Josh Allen in an elimination game far more than Bo Nix. The Broncos have had a great run, but Allen’s ability to take over a game with his legs gives Buffalo the edge in a tight one.
Seattle Seahawks Seattle is the healthier team and they are playing at home with a massive rest advantage coming off the bye. They dominated the 49ers statistically in Week 18, and with San Francisco missing key pieces like Kittle, the Seahawks should roll.
New England Patriots The Texans offense has looked shaky recently, and their young quarterback has struggled with turnovers. The Patriots defense is elite, and in a cold weather game in Foxboro, defense and coaching usually win out.
Los Angeles Rams The Rams offense is clicking at the right time, and Matthew Stafford has plenty of experience playing in Soldier Field from his NFC North days. The Bears have had a magical season, but the Rams have too much firepower for a Chicago defense that has been trending down.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
This weekend is defined by quarterbacks using their legs and teams leaning on their “1A” options in the red zone. We are seeing a massive trend of mobile QBs exploiting man coverage in the playoffs, which is why we are so heavy on Allen, Nix, and Maye rushing props. Defensively, expect tight games where field goals matter, but when the chips are down, the stars like Nacua and CMC (or his replacements) will get the high-leverage touches.
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