Week 3 wraps up with a fantastic Monday Night Football showdown between two NFC contenders as the Detroit Lions travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. This game features two of the most dynamic offenses in the league and has the highest projected total of the week, promising plenty of fireworks to close out the slate. That hasn’t stopped our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 from uncovering some juicy angles on the slate.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
This pick is centered on the historic dominance of the home team’s quarterback in this spot. Lamar Jackson has an incredible 24-2 career record against NFC opponents and is 7-2 straight up on Monday Night Football. The Ravens are a tier above the Lions and are playing at home, where head coach John Harbaugh excels in primetime games. We’re trusting one of the most powerful trends in the league to continue tonight.
👍 Derrick Henry (BAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
This is a classic bounce-back spot for one of the league’s most dominant running backs. After a quiet Week 2 against an elite Browns run defense, Henry gets a much softer matchup against a Lions team that can be run on. He is the clear goal-line back for a Ravens team with a high implied total, and in a game where Baltimore is expected to control the script, he will get plenty of opportunities to punch one in.
🔒 Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 3.5 Receptions
This lock is built on a perfect storm of matchup and game script. The Ravens’ defense forces quick throws and has given up the most receptions to opposing running backs this season. With the Lions expected to be playing from behind, quarterback Jared Goff will be forced to pass frequently, and Jahmyr Gibbs is his primary check-down and screen option. Gibbs saw ten receptions in a similar matchup and should see a heavy dose of targets again tonight.
🔒 Lamar Jackson (BAL) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
We are locking in one of the hottest trends in the NFL. Jackson has been a touchdown machine through the air, throwing for at least two scores in 16 of his last 18 games. He now gets a prime matchup against a struggling Lions secondary that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed and 24th against passing touchdowns. In a game projected to be a shootout, Jackson should have no problem continuing his dominant streak.
💧 Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
This is a lean on a high-volume receiver in a fantastic individual matchup. Flowers is the clear number one target for the Ravens, commanding an elite 43% target share and seeing double-digit targets in his last outing. He now faces a Lions defense that plays a high rate of man coverage, a scheme that Flowers excels against. With injuries also plaguing the Lions’ secondary, he is in a prime position for a big night.
💧 Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
In a game with the highest total of the week, we’re taking a chance on one of the most explosive and versatile playmakers on the field to find the end zone. Gibbs is a threat to score from anywhere on the field as both a runner and a receiver. With a game script that should favor his involvement in the passing game out of the backfield, he will have multiple paths to cashing this ticket.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s primetime game is all about offense, and our card reflects that. The main theme is trusting the Ravens’ proven track record of dominance at home under Lamar Jackson, which supports both the moneyline pick and his touchdown prop. On the other side, the game script of the Lions playing from behind makes their pass-catching running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, an excellent target in the prop market. The high total and vulnerable secondaries on both sides also point to a big night for the top passing game weapons, which is why we’re confident in the props for Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson’s passing touchdowns.
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