Week 11 kicks off with an AFC East divisional matchup as the New England Patriots host the New York Jets. This is a must-win game for the Patriots to keep their momentum, while the Jets are coming in on a short week after an overtime game. The Jets are also missing several key players, including Garrett Wilson and their top two defensive linemen, which creates some very interesting betting angles.
Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Over 79.5 Rushing Yards With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Henderson is in for a “bellcow workload” and has a smash matchup. He faces a horrible Jets run defense that ranks 23rd and just traded away its best interior player, Quinnen Williams. In a game the Patriots are expected to be leading, he should get a heavy volume of carries and run all over them.
👍 New England Patriots vs New York Jets Under 43.5 This pick is all about the defenses and pace. Both teams prefer to run the ball, which will keep the clock moving. The Patriots have the #1 run defense in the league and will be able to stop Breece Hall, the Jets’ only real weapon. The Jets’ offense is terrible, and with Garrett Wilson out, it’s hard to see how they score many points.
🔒 TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Anytime Touchdown This lines up perfectly with his rushing prop. Henderson is the clear lead back and will get all the high-value touches with Rhamondre Stevenson out. The Patriots are massive favorites, so they should have plenty of red zone opportunities. The Jets’ defense is vulnerable on the ground and has allowed nine rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
🔒 Breece Hall (NYJ) Over 15.5 Receiving Yards The Patriots have the #1 run defense in the NFL, which funnels all action to the passing game. New England has allowed the most receptions (6.1 per game) and the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs this season. With Garrett Wilson out, the Jets will be forced to get their best player the ball in space, likely through check-downs and screens.
💧 New England Patriots -12.5 This is a huge number for a divisional game, but the Jets are in a terrible spot. They are coming off an overtime game where their defense was on the field for 77 plays and now have to travel on a short week. The Jets just traded away their best defensive players, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, and are missing their top offensive weapon, Garrett Wilson.
💧 Drake Maye (NE) Over 21.5 Rushing Yards This is a great schematic matchup for Maye’s legs. The Jets play heavy man coverage, don’t spy the quarterback, and have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. All five QBs tracked by Props Madness have gone over this line against them, as the man coverage creates natural scrambling lanes.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s game looks like a complete mismatch, and our card reflects that. We are heavily backing the Patriots’ run game with TreVeyon Henderson, who gets a “bellcow” role against a depleted Jets run defense that just traded away its best player. This should lead to a run-heavy, clock-moving game script that also supports the under.
Even with the Patriots set to dominate, we’re still finding value on the Jets’ side. With the Patriots’ run defense being so elite, the Jets will be forced to throw, and with Garrett Wilson out, Breece Hall should easily clear his receiving prop on check-downs. We’re also backing Drake Maye’s rushing prop, as the Jets’ man-heavy scheme has been consistently exploited by mobile quarterbacks all season.
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