It’s Week 12 of the NFL season, and the playoff picture is starting to take real shape. For today’s card, we are switching things up and focusing exclusively on anytime touchdowns and spreads for our daily picks. We have identified key matchups where elite running backs should find the end zone and specific spreads that offer significant value based on recent team performance and injuries.
Our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown This matchup sets up as an absolute onslaught for the Ravens. The Jets run defense has been vulnerable, and Henry remains the focal point of Baltimore’s attack near the goal line. With the Ravens favored by double digits, the game script should allow for plenty of rushing opportunities in the red zone for their powerful back.
👍 Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Chiefs at home. They are in a must-win situation and face a Colts team that has beaten up on weaker competition but struggles against elite opponents. Mahomes and Kelce are finding their rhythm, and the Chiefs defense is allowing the fewest points per game at home this season.
🔒 Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Gibbs is in a smash spot against a Giants defense that has given up big games to running backs recently. Since Dan Campbell took over play-calling, Gibbs has averaged over 17 opportunities per game. He played 73% of the snaps last week and should get plenty of chances to score against a New York team that struggles to stop the run.
🔒 Detroit Lions -9.5 Taking the Lions at this number is key to avoiding the double-digit spread. Detroit is coming off a bad loss, and they typically bounce back strong in these situations. They face a Giants team starting backup quarterback Jameis Winston, who is known for turning the ball over. The Lions should be able to put up points and cover this number at home.
💧 Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Barkley is the undisputed engine of the Eagles offense. He faces a Cowboys run defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry and ranks near the bottom of the league in yards before contact allowed. With the Eagles dealing with injuries on the offensive line, they will likely lean heavily on Barkley in the red zone.
💧 Dallas Cowboys +3.5 The Cowboys defense has shown improvement recently with the addition of Quinnen Williams. They are catching points at home against an Eagles offense that has looked pedestrian and is missing key offensive lineman Lane Johnson. In a divisional rivalry game, getting more than a field goal with the home team is a solid value.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
This week’s card capitalizes on strong situational spots for elite teams and players. We are backing the Lions and Chiefs in “get right” games at home, where they have historically performed well. The touchdown props focus on high-volume running backs in Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley, who all have favorable matchups against defenses that struggle to stop the run in the red zone.
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