
Week 13 wraps up with a Monday Night Football clash between two historic franchises as the New England Patriots travel to take on the New York Giants. We have a battle of young quarterbacks with Drake Maye facing off against Jaxson Dart, and while the Patriots have been the hotter team, the Giants are looking to play spoiler at home. We have identified some excellent value on the ground and through the air for tonight’s matchup.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Jaxson Dart (NYG) Over 25.5 Rushing Yards Even if Dart is dealing with some lingering injury issues, his rushing floor remains incredibly high. The notes indicate he should still be able to get 25 yards on the ground simply by scrambling and extending plays. He faces a Patriots defense that can be exploited by mobile quarterbacks, making this a solid number to target.
👍 TreVeyon Henderson (NE) Anytime Touchdown Henderson has taken over as the primary back and is seeing a high workload that makes him a strong candidate to score. The Giants’ run defense has been described as “shaky,” and with the Patriots favored to win, Henderson should get plenty of goal-line opportunities to punch one in.
🔒 Drake Maye (NE) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns Maye has been “carving up defenses” recently and pumping up the points for the Patriots offense. He gets a fantastic matchup against a “leaky” Giants secondary that should be an easy target for his number one option, Stefon Diggs. We expect Maye to find the end zone multiple times through the air tonight.
💧 New York Giants +7.5 This line feels a bit too high for a home dog in a primetime game. The Patriots are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, specifically to Will Campbell, which is enough cause for concern to keep this game close. The Giants have shown they can pose a threat and should be able to cover this number even if they don’t win outright.
💧 Jaxson Dart (NYG) Anytime Touchdown We are doubling down on Dart’s legs with this lean. He has immense touchdown equity, having scored four red zone rushing touchdowns in his five starts this season. He has found the end zone in three straight games and continues to be a threat with his legs whenever he is active, offering great value.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s card is focused on the dynamic ability of the quarterbacks and the Patriots’ offensive momentum. We are backing Drake Maye to continue his strong play against a weak Giants secondary, while also trusting Jaxson Dart to use his legs to keep the Giants competitive. With the Patriots dealing with some injuries in the trenches, we see value in the Giants keeping this within a touchdown at home.
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