Happy Black Friday! We have a special standalone NFL game to keep the holiday vibes rolling as the Chicago Bears take on the Philadelphia Eagles. For today’s card, we are keeping it tight with a focused list of our favorite angles. We have identified some great value in the rushing markets for both quarterbacks and a touchdown prop that feels inevitable.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Jalen Hurts (PHI) Over 29.5 Rushing Yards Hurts has been using his legs more recently, posting 33 and 31 rushing yards in his last two games. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Bears defense that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, ranking 28th in rushing yards allowed to the position. Expect him to pull the ball down and scramble for positive yardage a few times today.
👍 Saquon Barkley (PHI) Anytime Touchdown The Bears are missing their top two linebackers, which is a disaster for their run defense. They are already allowing 3.2 touchdowns per game to opposing teams, ranking in the bottom five of the league. Philadelphia’s game plan will likely revolve around pounding the rock with Barkley, especially in the red zone, making him a prime candidate to score.
🔒 Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 20.5 Rushing Yards We are locking in on the rookie quarterback’s legs for our only lock of the day. Williams has cleared this line in five straight games. Facing an Eagles defense that brings exotic blitzes and pressure, he will likely be flushed from the pocket often. In a standalone game where he might be running for his life, his scrambling ability will be his best asset.
💧 Chicago Bears +7.5 Getting more than a touchdown with an 8-3 team feels like too much value to pass up. The Eagles have struggled to cover big numbers, going just 1-3 against the spread as favorites of four or more points this season. Philadelphia has a habit of letting teams hang around, and the Bears have been excellent on the road recently, covering in four of their last five away games.
💧 Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Under 44.5 The forecast calls for winds blowing 16-20 MPH, which usually leads to a ground-heavy, clock-churning game script. The Eagles offense has been inconsistent lately, averaging under 16 points in their last three games, while their defense has tightened up significantly. Sharp money is hammering the under, and we agree with the sentiment.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Today’s card is all about the ground game and weather conditions. With high winds expected in Philadelphia, we are backing both quarterbacks to use their legs and Saquon Barkley to find the end zone against a depleted Bears linebacker corps. We also see value in the underdog Bears keeping this close in a low-scoring, physical battle where points will be at a premium.
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