The NFL regular season finale kicks off with a massive Saturday doubleheader carrying huge playoff implications. We have the Buccaneers fighting for their postseason lives against the Panthers, followed by a heavyweight NFC West battle between the Seahawks and 49ers. We are attacking the board with a mix of volume-based player props and touchdown scorers in what should be do-or-die atmospheres.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Christian McCaffrey (SF) Over Rushing Yards McCaffrey has been dominant on the ground, clearing 66.5 rushing yards in five of his last six games while averaging nearly 74 yards per contest this season. He has historically owned the Seahawks, never recording fewer than 68 rushing yards against them in seven career matchups. With the NFC West title on the line, we expect the 49ers to lean heavily on their workhorse back to control the game.
👍 Sam Darnold (SEA) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns Darnold has been efficient finding the end zone, averaging 1.56 touchdown passes per game this season. He faces a 49ers defense that ranks 24th in the league in passing touchdowns allowed, giving up an average of 1.8 per game. Recent quarterbacks have found success throwing multiple scores against San Francisco, and Darnold should have opportunities to do the same in a game where Seattle likely needs to keep up through the air.
🔒 Bucky Irving (TB) Over Rushing Yards Irving has historically owned the Panthers, rushing for over 100 yards in both matchups against them last year. Carolina’s run defense is porous, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs this season. In a must-win game for Tampa Bay, look for them to establish the run early and often with their most explosive back.
🔒 Christian McCaffrey (SF) Anytime Touchdown McCaffrey has scored 17 total touchdowns this season and remains the focal point of the offense, especially in the red zone. This is a massive game for San Francisco with a potential first-round bye up for grabs, so Brock Purdy will rely on his most dynamic weapon to finish drives. Given his volume and the magnitude of the moment, McCaffrey finding the paint feels like one of the safest bets on the board.
💧 Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) Over Receiving Yards McMillan is just 71 yards away from a 1,000-yard season and should see plenty of volume as the Panthers look to play spoiler. He ranks fifth in the NFL in target rate against the blitz, a scheme the Buccaneers utilize frequently. With Tampa’s secondary dealing with injuries, McMillan is in a prime spot to rack up yardage.
💧 Mike Evans (TB) Anytime Touchdown Evans has been Baker Mayfield’s safety blanket, seeing consistent targets since returning from injury. He has a five-game streak of recording at least five receptions against NFC South opponents and faces a Panthers defense that ranks in the bottom ten for completion percentage allowed. In a do-or-die spot, Mayfield will look for his big-bodied receiver to make a play in the end zone.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
For our bonus leans on the game winners, we are backing both home favorites to handle business. We like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline because this is essentially a playoff game for them at home, where Baker Mayfield is far more trustworthy than Bryce Young. In the nightcap, we are rolling with the San Francisco 49ers Moneyline, as Brock Purdy has looked electric at home and Kyle Shanahan tends to have his team ready for these high-stakes divisional clashes.
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