Welcome to the final Sunday of the regular season! This week, we are doing things differently. There are no Props, Locks, or Drops. Instead, we are breaking down the specific incentive-based bets for Week 18, as not every team has something to play for. We are focusing strictly on the players chasing contract bonuses, records, and milestones, as well as the teams fighting for playoff positioning.
Tony Pollard (TEN) Over 66.5 Rushing Yards Pollard enters this game exactly 66 yards away from a massive $250,000 contract bonus. The coaching staff and his teammates are well aware of this milestone, and we expect them to feed him the ball until he cashes that check. He has hit this rushing line in five consecutive games against the Jaguars, making this a prime spot for him to get his money.
Hunter Henry (NE) Over Receptions Henry is just five catches away from hitting a contract incentive for 60 receptions on the season. With the Patriots playing “full tilt” to secure a potential first-round bye, Drake Maye will be looking for his reliable tight end often. We expect his line to be set around 3.5 or 4 receptions, providing great value for a player motivated to reach that 60-catch mark.
Myles Garrett (CLE) To Break Sack Record This is a historic opportunity for Garrett, who is chasing the all-time single-season sack record. Reports suggest he could break the record in this game, potentially by multiple sacks, as he looks to cement his legacy. Even if the game script gets away from Cleveland, Garrett will be head-hunting on every snap to get this record.
Michael Wilson (ARI) Over 65.5 Receiving Yards Wilson has been performing like a true number one receiver recently and needs 93 yards to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. He has cleared this line in three of the last four games where Marvin Harrison Jr. has missed time. In a game where the Cardinals are heavy underdogs and likely passing to catch up, Wilson should see the volume needed to chase this milestone.
Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 86.5 Rushing Yards Barkley is heating up at the right time and faces a Bills defense that has struggled against the run. The Eagles need this win to hit their stride going into the playoffs, and Barkley will be the engine of the offense. With Philadelphia looking to put up a big number on a bad defense, Barkley should get plenty of work.
Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown The Bills are favorites in this matchup, and while there is talk of resting starters, they still need to secure the win to maintain momentum. Shakir has been a dynamic playmaker, and with the offense looking to capitalize on a Jets team that has checked out, he is a strong candidate to find the end zone.
Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Similar to Shakir, Knox is a key part of the Bills’ red-zone package. In a game where Buffalo is expected to win by a touchdown or more, Knox provides a reliable target for the quarterback near the goal line.
Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown With the Chiefs looking to tune up for the playoffs against a Raiders team that has struggled mightily, the offense should have plenty of scoring opportunities. Brown’s speed makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field in what should be a comfortable win for Kansas City.
Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown The Texans are in a must-win situation, with their dominant defense giving the offense plenty of short fields. Diggs will be motivated to help his team secure the victory and enter the postseason on a high note, especially facing a Titans team starting a rookie quarterback.
Kendrick Bourne Anytime Touchdown The Patriots are playing for a shot at the number one seed and a first-round bye, meaning they will not be taking their foot off the gas. Bourne should see opportunities as New England looks to blow out the Dolphins and secure their playoff positioning.
Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown The Bears are highly motivated, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson vocal about the importance of securing a home playoff game. Allen is a veteran presence who steps up in big games, and Chicago will be looking to their leaders to make plays and lock up that seed.
Denver Broncos The Broncos absolutely need this win to lock up the number one overall seed in the AFC. They are 12.5-point favorites against a Chargers team with nothing to play for, and Denver will be looking to dominate from start to finish to ensure the road to the Super Bowl goes through Mile High.
New England Patriots New England is playing for a shot at the number one seed and a crucial first-round bye. They are expected to be “full tilt” against the Dolphins, looking to win handily by double digits to secure their rest week.
Houston Texans This is a game the Texans need to win to maintain their standing. They have a massive advantage with their defensive front facing a rookie quarterback in Riley Leonard, and they will be focused on handling business at home.
Chicago Bears The Bears are playing for a home playoff game, which is a massive motivator for this young team. Unlike the Lions, who may be disappointed with their season, Chicago has a clear goal and will be fighting hard to play in front of their home crowd in the postseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars have an opportunity to win the division and host a playoff game with a victory. This is a “real football team” that understands the stakes, and they will be fully focused on beating the Titans to secure the AFC South title.
Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
This week is all about identifying who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain. We are backing the players with money on the line like Tony Pollard and Hunter Henry, and trusting the teams like Denver and New England that are fighting for the top seed. Be careful with teams that have nothing to play for, and focus your bankroll on the motivated spots.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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