Week 4 kicks off with a crucial NFC West showdown as the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams enter this Thursday night clash with identical 2-1 records, looking to gain an early edge in the divisional race. This game features some fascinating player prop angles, especially with key injuries shaping how each offense will have to attack. That hasn’t stopped our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis 📈, and AI insights 🤖 from uncovering some juicy angles on the slate.
Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Trey McBride (ARI) Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
This is a bet on the combination of elite volume and a fantastic matchup. McBride is the undisputed focal point of Arizona’s passing attack, commanding a massive 27% target share and leading the team in first-read looks. He now faces a Seattle defense with a clear vulnerability against tight ends, a matchup he has dominated in the past, putting up 133 and 70 receiving yards in his two games against the Seahawks last year. With running back James Conner out, expect Kyler Murray to lean on his most trusted target even more heavily.
👍 Seattle Seahawks Moneyline
This is a bet on the better, healthier, and historically dominant team. The Seahawks have had the Cardinals’ number for years, having won seven straight games in this rivalry. Seattle enters this game with a significant health advantage, while the Cardinals will be without their best offensive player, James Conner, for the season. With a defense that is playing at an elite level and has yet to allow more than 17 points in a game, the Seahawks have a clear path to victory.
🔒 Kyler Murray (ARI) Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts
This lock is built on necessity and opportunity. With star running back James Conner now out for the season, Murray will have to use his legs more to move the offense, both on designed runs and scrambles. He now faces one of the league’s best pass rushes in the Seahawks, who rank fourth in pressure rate. That pressure will almost certainly force him to escape the pocket and run, making this a high-floor prop.
🔒 Trey Benson (ARI) Over 2.5 Receptions
This is a classic case of role meeting a perfect matchup. Benson is stepping into the primary pass-catching role out of the backfield with James Conner out, and he has already seen 10 targets in the last two weeks. He now faces a Seattle defense that is uniquely vulnerable to receiving running backs, having allowed the most targets and receiving yards per game to the position this season. Expect Kyler Murray to look his way often on check-downs.
💧 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Over 81.5 Receiving Yards
This was by far the most popular player prop in our research, and for good reason. Smith-Njigba has been “completely unlocked” in Seattle’s offense, averaging over 100 yards per game and commanding an elite 40% target share. He has a dream matchup against an injured Cardinals secondary that ranks as the worst pass defense in the NFL. However, because of this perfect storm, the betting line has climbed significantly all week and is now heavily juiced, moving it from a lock to our drops section.
💧 Game Total Under 43.5 Points
This lean is based on a combination of sharp money movement and pace of play. The betting line for this game has dropped a full three points from its opener of 46.5, indicating that professional bettors are expecting a low-scoring game. Both teams operate slowly, with Arizona being the slowest team in the league, which limits the number of possessions. Combined with Seattle’s elite defense and a less explosive Arizona offense missing its best player, a defensive grind is the most likely outcome.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Tonight’s TNF matchup is heavily influenced by the season-ending injury to Cardinals’ running back James Conner. This has shifted our focus to quarterback props and the receiving game, as we expect Kyler Murray to use his legs more and target his top pass-catchers like Trey McBride and Trey Benson heavily. On the other side, the Seahawks have a massive advantage through the air with Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a porous Cardinals secondary. While a high-scoring game is possible, the slow pace of both offenses and the dominance of Seattle’s defense lead us to believe this will be a more methodical, lower-scoring affair than the individual offensive matchups might suggest.
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