Sunday is here, and we have a jam-packed NFL Week 5 slate full of massive mismatches, motivated divisional matchups, and a ton of value across the board. The main card features several teams poised for major bounce-back performances and some running back matchups that are too good to ignore.
This Sunday, we are shaking things up a little! We are rolling out our usual picks for spreads, totals, and player props, but we are also including a separate bonus section dedicated exclusively to our Anytime Touchdown picks. We have been absolutely killing anytime touchdown bets this season so you’re going to want to tail!
Our selections are filtered through our proven 3-step model, ensuring every pick is backed by rigorous data-driven research 📊, supported by relevant trends analysis 📈, and synthesized into sharp AI insights 🤖. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Cleveland Browns +3.5
The Browns are expected to lean heavily on their elite run defense—which ranks first in rushing yards allowed—and their stout running game with a rookie quarterback making his first start. Furthermore, playing back-to-back games overseas is a notoriously tough physical task for the Vikings, making the underdog in this spot attractive.
👍 Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
This is arguably the best possible matchup on the entire slate, as the Cowboys’ defense is currently giving up the most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league. Given Wilson’s immense target share and talent, he is poised to exploit the secondary for a huge yardage day.
🔒 David Montgomery (DET) Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
The running back is in a perfect motivational spot returning to his old stadium, facing a Bengals defense that is an “absolute wreck” against the run. Cincinnati ranks 26th in run DVOA and is allowing excessive rushing yards, giving Montgomery a high-floor, high-ceiling matchup.
🔒 Detroit Lions -9.5
This play is a direct fade of a Bengals team that is an “absolute mess,” having been outscored 76-13 in their last two weeks. The Lions, meanwhile, have won three straight games without scoring under 32 points, demonstrating an offensive consistency that should easily clear this spread at home.
💧 Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline
This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Chargers at home against a vulnerable Commanders team. Washington’s passing defense is weak and is dealing with key injuries, specifically the absence of a top receiver that leaves their offense less threatening.
💧 Breece Hall (NYJ) Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
The running back is the second-most targeted player on the Jets’ roster, and he is facing a Cowboys defense that is giving up the third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs. This passing usage ensures he has a clear path to clearing a modest receiving yardage prop.
Anytime Touchdown Bets
We have identified our favorite Anytime Touchdown opportunities for Sunday. We made our picks on PrizePicks, and you can see our entries here: PrizePicks Entry. You can tail us on PrizePicks and claim a free $50 by using code RECOVER3 and signing up here: PrizePicks $50 Bonus
👍 Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Wilson is facing a Cowboys defense that is currently giving up the most touchdowns and receiving yards to wide receivers. With his high volume and usage near the goal line, he is a great candidate to hit paydirt in the best possible matchup on the board.
🔒 Jonathan Taylor (IND)
The Colts are expected to dominate a Titans team that the data suggests is one of the worst in the league against the run. Taylor is the lead back for a top-tier offense that should be in the red zone often, making him a high-conviction bet to punch in a score.
💧 Nico Collins (HOU)
Collins is the main target for quarterback C.J. Stroud and faces a Ravens defense that is “wiped out by injury,” including significant issues in the secondary. This makes Collins a strong target to find the end zone against a compromised unit.
💧 Derrick Henry (TEN)
Despite the Titans’ overall offensive struggles, Henry remains the centerpiece of their offense and a massive red zone threat. His sheer volume and high goal-line opportunity share make him a constant threat to score, providing value as a bonus drop.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
The Week 5 slate revealed a clear theme: exploiting severe weaknesses in opponent run defenses. This led us to heavy bets on rushing yards and spreads that penalize teams with poor defensive fronts, such as the Lions and Browns. We also prioritized high-usage players like Garrett Wilson who have advantageous individual matchups. This week, we found value in two distinct categories—volume-driven props and high-volume anytime touchdown candidates—showing that sticking to the edges that repeat across the research always wins out.
Check out ReCover3Sports.com for more daily picks, and hit our ReCover 3 Linktree for every platform we’re active on. Good luck today, and let’s keep cashing!
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