It’s Week 7 of the NFL season, and we are going to do things a little different this week. We’re giving you a few extra bets, with nine total picks across our three categories. For each prop, lock, and drop, there will be one player prop bet, one game bet, and one anytime touchdown bet.
How have we continued to hit like us? That’s because our proven 3-step model of data-driven research 📊, trends analysis📈, and AI insights 🤖 is built for long-term success. Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Jordan Addison (MIN) Over 41.5 Receiving Yards The Eagles secondary looks broken right now, and they will likely have to start Adoree’ Jackson and Kelee Ringo, two of the worst-graded corners in the league. With Quinyon Mitchell expected to be shadowing Justin Jefferson, Addison should have a field day carving up the Eagles’ number two corner. He is explosive and will have ample opportunity to get this number.
👍 Denver Broncos -7 This is a classic letdown spot for the Giants, who are coming off a massive, emotional divisional win against the Eagles. Now they travel to the high altitude of Denver for rookie Jaxon Dart’s second road start. His first road game was a two-interception loss, and he now faces a ferocious Broncos pass rush that leads the league in sacks.
👍 Jonathan Taylor (IND) Anytime Touchdown Taylor has been the focal point of the Colts’ high-scoring offense, racking up eight touchdowns already. He is the clear goal-line back and now faces a Chargers defense that has struggled to stop the run. The Chargers have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, making this a prime spot for Taylor to find the end zone again.
🔒 Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Over 90.5 Rushing Yards This is a perfect storm. The weather in Cleveland is expected to be nasty, with heavy rain and wind gusts up to 60 mph, which will force a run-heavy game. Judkins faces a “dreadful” Dolphins run defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. After a pass-heavy experiment failed last week, expect the Browns to force-feed Judkins all game.
🔒 Indianapolis Colts +1.5 We are fading a struggling Chargers team that is dealing with major injuries on their offensive line. The Colts are 5-1, legitimately good, and have the better all-around defense in this matchup. The Chargers’ run game is non-existent, and their offense will be one-dimensional, which the Colts’ solid defense can handle. We’ll take the points with the better team.
🔒 Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Anytime Touchdown This pick is directly correlated with our rushing yards lock. In a game defined by terrible weather and a dominant run-game matchup, Judkins is the only person the Browns should be giving the ball to near the goal line. He is the clear lead back and will get every opportunity to punch one in against Miami’s “dreadful” run defense.
💧 De’Von Achane (MIA) Under 67.5 Rushing Yards This is the worst matchup possible for Achane. The Browns have the #1 DVOA run defense in the league and will be able to stack the box knowing Tua Tagovailoa will struggle to throw in the high winds. Achane is not a between-the-tackles runner and had only 25 yards against this defense last year. This is a complete fade of the matchup.
💧 Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Game Total Under 40.5 With sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 60 mph, passing will be nearly impossible for either team. Both offenses will be forced to run the ball, which will keep the clock moving. The Browns’ defense is elite, and their offense is anemic with a rookie QB. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring, 13-10 type of game.
💧 Rashee Rice (KC) Anytime Touchdown Rice is back from suspension and is expected to be “full go” with no snap count. He is a YAC monster and a true number one receiver for Patrick Mahomes, with a history of being a red zone threat. He faces a Raiders defense that plays a ton of zone, which he has historically dominated, giving him a great chance to make an immediate impact.
💰 CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Anytime Touchdown (Bonus Bet) Lamb is expected to be back and fully healthy for this game, and what a “get right” spot it is. He is the undisputed alpha for Dak Prescott and faces a Commanders defense that is “downright atrocious,” ranking 31st in DVOA and last in the league against the pass. Look for Dak to feed his top weapon early and often.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis This week’s card is a special one, as we’ve included a game line, a player prop, and a touchdown bet for each of our categories. The card is heavily influenced by weather, as the Dolphins-Browns game projects to be a run-heavy, low-scoring affair due to extreme wind and rain, making the Judkins props and the game under very strong plays. We are also backing elite talent in smash spots, like Jordan Addison against a terrible Eagles secondary and Jonathan Taylor against a Chargers team that can’t stop the run.
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