t’s Week 9 of the NFL season and we have a fantastic slate of Sunday games. Several matchups feature heavy favorites and potential mismatches, which has created some great value on both spreads and player props. We are digging deep into some of the league’s top offenses, including the Colts and Rams, while also targeting elite touchdown scorers in smash spots.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Kamani Vidal (LAC) Anytime Touchdown This is an elite spot for the Chargers’ workhorse back. Vidal has dominated the red zone work, and now he faces a Tennessee Titans defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs in the entire league. With the Chargers favored by more than a touchdown, the game script should lean heavily on the run, giving Vidal plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.
👍 Indianapolis Colts -3 We are backing the best offense in football against one of the league’s most disappointing defenses. The Colts come into this game with the number one offense in EPA per play and are averaging nearly 34 points per game. The Steelers defense, on the other hand, is ranked 31st in EPA per play and has been hit hard by injuries. This is a massive mismatch, and Indianapolis should have no trouble covering a simple field goal.
🔒 Kareem Hunt (KC) Anytime Touchdown With Isiah Pacheco officially ruled out, Kareem Hunt takes over as the primary running back and goal line specialist for the Chiefs. Hunt already leads the team in carries inside the 10 yard line, and now he gets a fantastic matchup. The Bills defense has been vulnerable on the ground, allowing the second most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, including six scores in their last four games alone.
🔒 Los Angeles Rams -13.5 This is a complete mismatch on paper. The Rams have a top three defense in the league and are holding opponents to just 10 total points over their last two games. They get to face a horrendous Saints offense that will be starting rookie quarterback Tyler Shuck in his first career game on the road. The Rams have covered this big number in back to back weeks, and we expect them to do it again in a blowout.
💧 Josh Allen (BUF) Anytime Touchdown This is a lean based on Josh Allen’s history in big games. He tends to use his legs more in marquee matchups and has scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs also blitz at one of the highest rates in the league, which could create scrambling lanes for Allen to find the end zone.
💧 New England Patriots -5.5 We are riding the hot hand with the Patriots, who have covered the spread by an average of 12 points per game during their current five game winning streak. They face a sputtering Falcons offense, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been significantly worse when playing on the road. With the Falcons defense also banged up, we like the Patriots to win this one by at least a touchdown at home.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
This week’s card is defined by taking advantage of clear mismatches. We’re backing elite, high-volume offenses like the Colts and Rams against struggling, injured defenses. We’re also targeting workhorse running backs in Kamani Vidal and Kareem Hunt, who have prime matchups for finding the end zone.
Finally, we are looking for big game players to step up, whether that’s Josh Allen using his legs against a rival or the Patriots continuing their dominant run at home.
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