It is definitely a little sad to realize the NFL season is winding down, but we are not worried because the playoffs are finally here. The intensity ramps up today with two massive Wild Card matchups featuring divisional rivalries and historic franchises. We have analyzed the weather, the schemes, and the motivation to bring you our favorite angles for this opening Saturday of the postseason.
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Let’s break down our picks using our exclusive system: 👍 Props (bets we like), 🔒 Locks (our favorites), and 💧 Drops (leans we don’t love but don’t hate).
👍 Kyren Williams (LAR) Over 64.5 Rushing Yards Williams has been the engine of the Rams offense, hitting the over on this line in nine of his last 10 games while averaging 78 rushing yards per contest. He faces a Panthers defense that ranks 25th in run DVOA and allows over 100 rushing yards per game to backs. He already proved he can shred this unit, dropping 72 yards on the ground against them earlier this season, and with weather potentially being a factor, expect him to get fed early and often.
👍 Josh Jacobs (GB) Anytime Touchdown Jacobs has been a scoring machine for Green Bay, finding the end zone in 10 of the 15 games he played this season. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Bears defense that has struggled to stop the run near the goal line, allowing five yards per carry on the season. In four career games against Chicago, Jacobs has scored in three of them, and with snow showers possible, the Packers will likely lean on their workhorse back to punch it in.
🔒 Josh Jacobs (GB) Over 70 Rushing Yards We are doubling down on Jacobs because the matchup is just that good. The Bears rank in the top 10 for rushing yards allowed to running backs and were recently gashed for huge yardage on the ground. Jacobs has stated this is the best he has felt in weeks, and in playoff games, teams rely on their stars. Expect him to see 20+ carries in a physical, cold-weather game where running the ball is the priority.
🔒 Kyren Williams (LAR) Anytime Touchdown Williams is the undisputed red-zone weapon for Los Angeles, scoring a touchdown in 60% of his games over the last 10 weeks. He found the end zone against Carolina in their previous meeting and remains the focal point of the offense whenever they get inside the 20-yard line. With the Rams favored on the road, positive game script should give him multiple chances to score.
💧 Green Bay Packers Moneyline This is a classic case of trusting experience over youth. Jordan Love has absolutely dominated the Bears in his career, and the Packers have won 12 of the last 14 meetings in this rivalry. While Caleb Williams is talented, making your first playoff start against a division rival is a tall task. We trust Green Bay’s coaching staff and quarterback to handle the pressure of the moment better than Chicago.
💧 D’Andre Swift (CHI) Anytime Touchdown Swift has found his scoring touch down the stretch, recording five touchdowns in his last six games. The Packers defense has been vulnerable to running backs recently, allowing five scores to the position in their last two games alone. With the Bears looking to establish the run at home, Swift should get the high-value touches near the goal line.
📊 Final Thoughts & Trends Analysis
Our strategy for Wild Card Saturday is all about trusting the bell-cow running backs. We are heavily investing in Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs to dominate their respective matchups on the ground, both in yardage and scoring. The weather conditions and the magnitude of the games point towards run-heavy scripts, and we are backing the players who will get the volume to deliver.
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